T???p C???n B??nh ???? th???ng tr??? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o? (P2)

Thứ năm - 29/08/2019 20:17
S??? bi???n h??a c???a ??ng T???p ?????n t??? nhi???u y???u t???. ???? th??ng ti???n c???a hai ?????i th??? c???a ??ng, B???c Hy Lai, B?? th?? Tr??ng Kh??nh, v?? Chu V??nh Khang, B??? tr?????ng B??? C??ng an, ???? gi??ng h???i chu??ng b??o ?????ng c??c l??nh ?????o ?????ng. D?????i th???i H??? C???m ????o, h??? t??? ra th???n tr???ng tr??n nhi???u m???t. Nay, v???i s??? ???ng h??? c???a ??ng T???p, c??c l??nh ?????o quy???t t??m lo???i b??? B???c v?? Chu.
T???p C???n B??nh ???? th???ng tr??? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o? (P2)

T???p C???n B??nh ???? th???ng tr??? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o? (P2)

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Ngu???n: Richard McGregor, ???Party Man: Xi Jinping???s Quest to Dominate China???, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019.

Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy | Bi??n t???p: L?? H???ng Hi???p

N???i ??m ???nh dai d???ng

S??? bi???n h??a c???a ??ng T???p ?????n t??? nhi???u y???u t???. ???? th??ng ti???n c???a hai ?????i th??? c???a ??ng, B???c Hy Lai, B?? th?? Tr??ng Kh??nh, v?? Chu V??nh Khang, B??? tr?????ng B??? C??ng an, ???? gi??ng h???i chu??ng b??o ?????ng c??c l??nh ?????o ?????ng. D?????i th???i H??? C???m ????o, h??? t??? ra th???n tr???ng tr??n nhi???u m???t. Nay, v???i s??? ???ng h??? c???a ??ng T???p, c??c l??nh ?????o quy???t t??m lo???i b??? B???c v?? Chu. Hai ??ng n??y b??? l???t ????? sau m???t chu???i d??i c??c cu???c ??i???u tra, ph???n l???n l?? v??? tham nh??ng v?? l???m d???ng quy???n l???c. S??? s???p ????? c???a h??? t???o n??n m???t c??n ?????a ch???n ch??nh tr??? ??? Trung Qu???c. ??ng B???c l?? ng?????i con trai ?????y cu???n h??t c???a m???t anh h??ng c??ch m???ng (B???c Nh???t Ba), v?? l?? ng?????i ch???y ??ua c??ng khai cho m???t gh??? l??nh ?????o c???p cao ??? trung ????ng. C??n ??ng Chu, m???t ???y vi??n Th?????ng v??? B??? Ch??nh tr??? cho ?????n cu???i n??m 2012, t???p trung ???????c quy???n l???c to l???n t??? c??c ch???c v??? c???a ??ng trong l???c l?????ng an ninh m???t v?? ng??nh n??ng l?????ng (??ng t???ng l?? B??? tr?????ng ?????t ??ai v?? T??i nguy??n). V??? b???t gi??? hai ??ng n??y v??o n??m 2012 v?? 2013 ???? c??ng khai c??c t???i danh v?? ?????i s???ng t??nh d???c tr???y l???c c???a h???. Sau ????, truy???n th??ng nh?? n?????c, d???n l???i c??c quan ch???c c???p cao, cho bi???t c???p ????i n??y ???? ??m m??u ti???n h??nh m???t cu???c ?????o ch??nh n???i b??? nh???m ng??n ??ng T???p b?????c l??n n???m quy???n. Trong n???i b??? ?????ng, nh???ng h??nh ?????ng ch??nh tr??? sai tr??i nh?? v???y c??n t??? h??n c??? tham nh??ng ????n thu???n.

??ng T???p c??ng ch?? ?? ?????n s??? suy tho??i ?? th???c h??? c???a ?????ng, ?????c tr??ng b???i t??nh tr???ng h???i l??? tr??n lan v?? s??? tr???i d???y c???a c??c ???l??nh ?????a??? c?? nh??n c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? c??? c??c c??ng ty nh?? n?????c v?? t?? nh??n. ??? n?????c ngo??i, ??ng theo d??i c??c cu???c ???c??ch m???ng m??u??? ??? ch??u ??u v?? bi???u t??nh ???????ng ph??? ??? Trung ????ng l???t ????? c??c ch??nh quy???n t?????ng ch???ng kh??ng th??? b??? ????nh b???i. Song ??ng T???p xem b??o ?????ng l???n nh???t l?? t??? s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X??, ??ng b??? khi???p s??? b???i c??ch m?? ?????ng C???ng s???n Li??n X?? g???n nh?? b???c h??i ch??? trong v??ng m???t ????m. ???M???t ?????ng l???n ???? bi???n m???t, ch??? nh?? v???y ?????y???, ??ng n??i trong m???t b??i ph??t bi???u h???i n??m 2012. ???N??i v??? quy m??, ?????ng C???ng s???n Li??n X?? c??n c?? nhi???u ?????ng vi??n h??n ch??ng ta, song kh??ng c?? ng?????i n??o ????? c???ng r???n ????? ?????ng l??n v?? ch???ng ch???i???. Trung Qu???c ???? nghi??n c???u k??? s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X?? ngay sau khi s??? ki???n n??y x???y ra. G???n m???t ph???n t?? th??? k??? sau, ??ng T???p c?? ????? lo l???ng v??? t??nh tr???ng c???a ?????ng m??nh ????? bu???c m???i ng?????i t??? c??c l??nh ?????o cao c???p cho ?????n c??c c??ng ch???c b??nh th?????ng quay l???i l???p h???c v?? h???c b??i h???c c???a Li??n X??, th??m m???t l???n n???a. ???Ch???i b??? l???ch s??? c???a Li??n X??, ch???i b??? Lenin v?? Stalin, v?? ch???i b??? m???i ??i???u kh??c ch??nh l?? ??o???n tuy???t l???ch s??????, ??ng n??i trong m???t b??i ph??t bi???u kh??c v??o n??m 2012. ?????i???u n??y x??o tr???n t?? t?????ng c???a ch??ng ta v?? l??m suy y???u t??? ch???c ?????ng ??? m???i c???p b???c???

C???nh tranh quy???n l??nh ?????o v?? tho??i tr??o ?? th???c h??? ????a ??ng T???p v??o m???t chu???i c??c h??nh ?????ng quy???t li???t. Trong v??ng 200 ng??y t???i nhi???m ?????u ti??n, ??ng bao qu??t m???t ph???m vi ???n t?????ng c??c v???n ????? ch??nh s??ch kh??c nhau v?? ????a ra c??c ??i???u ch???nh ??? m???t t???c ????? ????ng kinh ng???c. Ch??? v??i tu???n, ??ng ???? g???n m???t th????ng hi???u ??? ???Gi???c m???ng Trung Hoa ??? cho ch??nh quy???n c???a m??nh, ban h??nh c??c lu???t l??? m???i kh???t khe h??n nh???m gi??m s??t h??nh vi c???a c??c quan ch???c, quy???t ?????nh nh???ng t?? t?????ng n??o ???????c v?? kh??ng ???????c th???o lu???n, ????n ??p m???t t??? b??o t??? do ??? mi???n nam v?? nh???ng l???i k??u g???i cho ???ch??? ngh??a l???p hi???n???, m???t kh??i ni???m ???b???n th???u??? trong m???t nh?? n?????c ?????c ?????ng. ??ng c??ng b???t ?????u t???ng giam nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch ?????ng. C??c lu???t s?? v???n ?????ng nh??n quy???n, nh???ng ng?????i ???? th??nh c??ng trong vi???c t???o ra m???t kh??ng gian nh??? b???o v??? quy???n c??ng d??n, l???n l?????t b??? b???t gi??? b???i c?? quan an ninh qu???c gia. C??c quan ch???c th???m v???n ho???c b??? t?? kho???ng 250 ng?????i trong s??? c??c lu???t s?? n??y, trong m???t chi???n d???ch b??i b???n. Nh???ng ng?????i b??? bu???c t???i ph???i ng???i trong tr???i giam m?? kh??ng h??? ???????c x??t x??? c??ng b???ng, ????i khi trong nhi???u n??m. Ng?????i g???n ????y nh???t trong s??? c??c lu???t s?? n???i b???t nh???t, ??ng V????ng To??n Ch????ng (Wang Quanzhang), ???? kh??ng ch??nh th???c b??? k???t ??n cho ?????n t???n th??ng M???t n??m nay, sau 4 n??m t???m giam.

??ng T???p gi??? v???ng t???c ????? ???n t?????ng n??y trong su???t n??m 2013. Th??ng 9 n??m ???y, ??ng c??ng b??? S??ng ki???n V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng (BRI), m???t s??ng ki???n s??? c??? th??? h??a k??? ho???ch c???a B???c Kinh nh???m x??y d???ng v?? ki???m so??t nh???ng con ???????ng c??? tr??n b??? v?? tr??n bi???n n???i li???n l???c ?????a ??-??u v???i ???n ????? D????ng t???i t???n ch??u ??u, t??? ???? ????a Trung Qu???c tr??? th??nh m???t trung t??m kinh doanh v?? c??ng ngh???. ??ng T???p th??nh l???p Ng??n h??ng ?????u t?? C?? s??? H??? t???ng Ch??u ?? (AIIB) b???t ch???p s??? ph???n ?????i c???a M???. ??ng ?????t m???c ti??u ?????n cu???i n??m 2020 s??? x??a ngh??o th??nh c??ng ??? Trung Qu???c, ????ng d???p k??? ni???m 100 n??m th??nh l???p ??CSTQ. ??ng l??m n??ng v???n ????? ????i Loan, g???i h??n ?????o n??y l?? ???m???t v???n ????? ch??nh tr??? kh??ng th??? tr?? ho??n su???t nhi???u th??? h??????. Ngay sau ????, Trung Qu???c th???c hi???n m???t k??? ho???ch ???? c?? t??? l??u nh???m x??y d???ng c??c c??n c??? qu??n s??? l???n ??? Bi???n ????ng.

Quan tr???ng h??n h???t, ??ng T???p ???? kh???i ?????ng cu???c chi???n ch???ng tham nh??ng, l??nh ?????o b???i ??ng V????ng K??? S??n, m???t trong nh???ng ng?????i c???ng r???n v?? c?? n??ng l???c nh???t trong s??? c??c l??nh ?????o c???a th??? h??? ??ng. Quy m?? c???a cu???c thanh tr???ng sau ???? l?? kh?? c?? th??? t?????ng t?????ng: t??? cu???i 2012, khi chi???n d???ch b???t ?????u, c??c c?? quan ch???c n??ng ???? ??i???u tra h??n 2,7 tri???u quan ch???c v?? tr???ng ph???t h??n 1,5 tri???u ng?????i trong s??? n??y. H??? bao g???m 7 th??nh vi??n B??? Ch??nh Tr??? v?? Ch??nh ph???, v?? kho???ng 24 t?????ng l??nh c???p cao. Hai quan ch???c cao c???p ???? b??? tuy??n ??n t??? h??nh. ??CSTQ c?? h??n 90 tri???u ?????ng vi??n, n???u tr??? n??ng d??n, ng?????i gi??, v?? ng?????i v??? h??u, ph???n l???n trong s??? h??? kh??ng b??? chi???n d???ch nh???m t???i, th?? cu???c thanh tr???ng n??y ???? x??a s???ch c??? m???t th??? h???. Quy m?? n??y ???? b??c b??? lu???n ??i???m cho r???ng chi???n d???ch ch??? ????n thu???n l?? m???t cu???c thanh tr???ng ch??nh tr??? d?????i m???t v??? b???c kh??c. D?? nhi??n, chi???n d???ch c?? nh???m ?????n m???t s??? ?????i th??? c???a ??ng T???p, nh??ng n?? ???? v?????t xa ra ngo??i danh s??ch k??? th?? c???a ??ng.

????? minh h???a cho t??nh ch???t kh??ng khoan nh?????ng c???a chi???n d???ch ch???ng tham nh??ng, h??y xem x??t tr?????ng h???p c???a Tr????ng D????ng (Zhang Yang), m???t trong nh???ng t?????ng l??nh k?? c???u nh???t v?? l?? Ch??? nhi???m T???ng c???c Ch??nh tr??? c???a qu??n ?????i, c?? quan ch???u tr??ch nhi???m ?????m b???o s??? trung th??nh ?? th???c h??? c???a qu??n ?????i. Trong m???t c??ng ch??ng, ??ng Tr????ng l?? m???t c??ng ch???c kh??ng c?? g?? ?????c s???c, ???????c nh???n bi???t trong c??c b???c h??nh c??ng v??? ch??? nh??? v??o b??? qu??n ph???c c???a ??ng, khu??n m???t ?????y ?????n, c??ng m??i t??c ??en b??ng vu???t keo. Th??? nh??ng, ??? trong h??? th???ng, ??ng l?? m???t ng?????i v?? c??ng quy???n l???c. N??m 2017, ng?????i ta t??m th???y ??ng Tr????ng treo c??? tr??n tr???n ng??i bi???t th??? c???a ??ng ??? Qu???ng Ch??u, b??n kia bi??n gi???i v???i H???ng K??ng. D???u hi???u ?????u ti??n cho th???y v??? t??? t??? c???a ??ng c?? li??n quan t???i tham nh??ng ?????n t??? c??c b??i b??o ????ng ngay sau c??i ch???t c???a ??ng. M???c cho h??ng th???p ni??n c???ng hi???n v?? ch???c v??? cao c???p c???a m??nh, Tr????ng D????ng c??ng kh??ng nh???n ???????c m???t b??i c??o ph?? ????ng ho??ng. T??? b??o ng??n lu???n c???a qu??n ?????i g???i ??ng l?? k??? ???v?? ?????o ?????c??? v?? g???i c??i ch???t c???a ??ng l?? ???m???t c??ch ?????y h??? th???n ????? k???t th??c cu???c ?????i??? v?? l?? ???m???t quy???t ?????nh x???u nh???m tr??nh b??? tr???ng ph???t???. Cu???c ??i???u tra c???a ?????ng nh???m v??o Tr????ng kh??ng d???ng l???i sau khi ??ng n??y ???????c ch??n c???t. Ch??? g???n m???t n??m sau, v??o cu???i n??m 2018, ??ng b??? khai tr??? kh???i ?????ng ??? bi???n ph??p quen thu???c c???a ?????ng nh???m k???t lu???n m???t quan ch???c c?? t???i.

N??? l???c c???a ??ng T???p nh???m t???p trung quy???n l???c l??n ?????n ?????nh ??i???m v??o cu???i nhi???m k?? ?????u, n??m 2017. Theo truy???n th???ng c???a ch??nh tr??? c???p cao Trung Qu???c, ????y ph???i l?? l??c ??ng T???p c??ng b??? ng?????i s??? k??? v??? m??nh v??o n??m 2022. Thay v??o ????, ??ng l???i b??i b??? quy ?????nh gi???i h???n hai nhi???m k??? 5 n??m Ch??? t???ch n?????c, tr??n th???c t??? bi???n ??ng tr??? th??nh m???t l??nh ?????o tr???n ?????i.

Kh??ng c?? g?? t???n t???i m??i m??i

??ng T???p ???? l???a ch???n ??i???u h??nh Trung Qu???c nh?? m???t nh?? qu???n tr??? kh???ng ho???ng. ??i???u n??y c?? th??? gi??p ??ng trong quan h??? ?????i ?????ch t???c th???i v???i M???. Song, k??? th?? c???a ??ng ??? Trung Qu???c v?? h???i ngo???i ng??y m???t ????ng. H??ng ng??n gia ????nh Trung Qu???c gi??u c?? v?? c??c tay ch??n th??n t??n c???a h???, nh???ng ng?????i ph???i ch???ng ki???n cu???c s???ng gi??u sang v?? nhi???u ?????c quy???n c???a m??nh b??? ph?? h???y ho??n to??n b???i cu???c chi???n ch???ng tham nh??ng, s??? c??m gi???n ??ng T???p trong nhi???u th??? h???. Gi???i k??? tr??? tinh hoa c???m th???y b??? ph???n b???i v?? ??ng T???p th??u t??m quy???n l???c, ch???n ?????ng cu???c c???i c??ch t?? ph??p ??ang l??n, v?? n??ng ????? cho kinh t??? nh?? n?????c. Cho ?????n g???n ????y, ??ng T???p ??t khi n??o l??n ti???ng v??? th??nh ph???n kinh t??? t?? nh??n, khu v???c ??em l???i kho???ng 70% GDP c???a ?????t n?????c v?? m???t t??? l??? th???m ch?? l???n h??n v??? vi???c l??m. S??? thay ?????i lu???n ??i???u c???a ??ng h???i cu???i n??m ngo??i, khi ??ng m???i m???t nh??m c??c doanh nh??n ?????n bu???i h???p kh??ch l??? tinh th???n t???i ?????i L??? ???????ng Nh??n D??n, l?? m???t d???u hi???u hi???m c?? cho th???y s??? ??i???u ch???nh. Trong ng???n h???n, ??ng T???p ???????c th??c ?????y b???i b???u kh??ng kh?? ???c??ng ??o??n k???t quanh c??? t??? qu???c??? t??? t??c ?????ng c???a th????ng chi???n M???-Trung v?? lu???n ??i???u th?? ?????ch th???t th?????ng c???a T???ng th???ng Donald Trump. Song kh??ng c?? m???t v???n ????? n??o m?? ??ng T???p ??ang ?????i m???t s??? s???m bi???n m???t.

??? h???i ngo???i, ???? ph???n ???ng ch???ng l???i Trung Qu???c ??ang l??n cao. Hoa K??? ??ang ?????i ?????u v???i Trung Qu???c tr??n g???n nh?? m???i l??nh v???c t??? th????ng m???i cho ?????n x??y d???ng qu??n ?????i. ?????c, ng?????c l???i, kh??ng t???p trung v??o s???c m???nh qu??n s??? m?? c???nh tranh v??? k??? thu???t c??ng nghi???p. Australia, gi???ng nh?? nhi???u n?????c kh??c ??? ch??u ??, s??? ph???i t??? b???o v??? m??nh trong m???t khu v???c kh??ng c??n ???????c M??? b???o ?????m an ninh. Nh???t B???n lo l???ng r???ng Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? mu???n th???ng tr??? v??ng bi???n quanh m??nh m?? c??n gi???i quy???t c??? nh???ng b???t ?????ng l???ch s???. ????i Loan, h??n ?????o t??? tr??? trong nhi???u th???p ni??n qua, lo s??? b??? nu???t ch???ng b???i ?????i l???c. C??c n?????c ????ng Nam ?? th?? lo s??? b??? ch??n ??p. ?????i v???i Canada, ti???ng chu??ng b??o ?????ng ?????n v??o cu???i th??ng 12 n??m ngo??i, khi c???nh s??t Vancouver b???t gi??? m???t qu???n l?? c???p cao c???a g?? kh???ng l??? c??ng ngh??? Huawei ????? d???n ????? theo y??u c???u c???a M???, ????? r???i ch???ng ki???n Trung Qu???c b???t hai c??ng d??n Canada v?? gi??? h??? l??m ???con tin ???o???. Trong khi ???? ??? H???ng K??ng, h??ng tri???u ng?????i c??ng tu???n h??nh h???i th??ng 6 nh???m ch???ng l???i m???t d??? lu???t s??? cho ph??p d???n ????? t???i ph???m ?????n ?????i l???c, ???ki???m tra??? s??? ki??n quy???t c???a ??ng T???p v?? s??? s???n s??ng c??ng nh?? kh??? n??ng th???a hi???p c???a ??ng.

Ngay c??? Mao c??n c?? ?????i th??? ch??nh tr???. ??ng T???p cho ?????n nay ???? ?????m b???o ??ng kh??ng c?? ?????i th??? n??o. C?? nh???ng l?? do thuy???t ph???c ????? c??c quan ch???c v?? h???c gi??? Trung Qu???c tin r???ng s??? d??n tr???i qu?? m???c c???a ??ng T???p s??? g??y kh?? cho ??ng tr?????c ?????i h???i ?????ng cu???i n??m 2022, ?????c bi???t n???u kinh t??? Trung Qu???c b???t ???n. Cho t???i l??c ????, c??c ?????i th??? ti???m n??ng c?? th??? s??? s???n s??ng ????nh li???u c??ng khai tham v???ng c???a h???. ??ng T???p c?? th??? ti???p t???c con ???????ng m?? ??ng ???? ??i m???t c??ch hi???u qu??? v?? lo???i b??? c??c ?????i th???. ??ng c?? th??? t???n d???ng nh???ng ??i???m y???u ??? trong n?????c v?? c??c cu???c tranh ?????u c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i ????? bi???n minh cho s??? ti???p t???c c???m quy???n c???a ??ng. Ho???c, c?? th??? cu???i c??ng ??ng s??? ph???i th???a nh???n r???ng ??ng, c??ng nh?? m???i ng?????i, kh??ng b???t t??? v?? s??? ????? ra m???t l??? tr??nh c??? th??? ????? b?????c xu???ng.

T???p C???n B??nh ???? th??? hi???n s??? t??o b???o v?? kh??o l??o ????ng k??? trong vi???c u???n n???n h??? th???ng kh???ng l??? c???a ?????ng nh???m ph???c v??? cho ?? ch?? c???a m??nh. Tuy nhi??n, d?? s???m hay mu???n, nh?? l???ch s??? g???n ????y c???a Trung Qu???c cho th???y, h??? th???ng s??? ??u???i k???p ??ng. C??u h???i ch??? l?? khi n??o m?? th??i./.

Cu???c c??ch m???ng h?????ng t???i s??? c??ng b???ng ti???p theo

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Ngu???n: Robert J. Shiller, ???The Coming Anti-National Revolution,??? Project Syndicate, 19/09/2016.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Thu Hi???n | Hi???u ????nh: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng

Trong nhi???u th??? k??? qua, th??? gi???i ???? tr???i qua m???t chu???i c??c cu???c c??ch m???ng tri th???c ch???ng l???i s??? ??p b???c d?????i nhi???u h??nh th???c. Ch??ng di???n ra trong t??m tr?? con ng?????i v?? lan r???ng ??? cu???i c??ng ?????n g???n nh?? kh???p th??? gi???i ??? kh??ng qua chi???n tranh (v???n c?? khuynh h?????ng bao g???m nhi???u nguy??n nh??n kh??c nhau), m?? qua ng??n ng??? v?? c??ng ngh??? truy???n th??ng. Cu???i c??ng, kh??ng nh?? nh???ng nguy??n nh??n c???a chi???n tranh, nh???ng ?? t?????ng m?? ch??ng th??c ?????y tr??? n??n kh??ng th??? tranh c??i.

T??i ngh?? cu???c c??ch m???ng ti???p theo nh?? v???y, r???t c?? th??? di???n ra v??o m???t l??c n??o ???? trong th??? k??? 21, s??? th??ch th???c nh???ng t??c ?????ng kinh t??? c???a c??c qu???c gia-d??n t???c. N?? s??? t???p trung v??o s??? b???t c??ng b???t ngu???n t??? th???c t??? l?? m???t s??? ng?????i sinh ra ??? nh???ng n?????c ngh??o c??n nh???ng ng?????i kh??c th?? sinh ra ??? nh???ng n?????c n?????c gi??u, m???t c??ch ho??n to??n ng???u nhi??n. Khi c?? nhi???u ng?????i h??n l??m vi???c cho c??c c??ng ty ??a qu???c gia v?? g???p g??? v?? hi???u bi???t h??n v??? nh???ng ng?????i ?????n t??? nh???ng ?????t n?????c kh??c, c???m quan c???a ch??ng ta v??? s??? c??ng b???ng ??ang b??? ???nh h?????ng.

??i???u n??y kh??ng ph???i l?? ch??a c?? ti???n l???. Trong cu???n 1688: The First Modern Revolution (1688: Cu???c c??ch m???ng hi???n ?????i ?????u ti??n), s??? gia Steven Pincus ???? l???p lu???n thuy???t ph???c r???ng c??i g???i l?? ???C??ch m???ng Vinh quang??? ???????c hi???u ????ng nh???t kh??ng ph???i l?? vi???c Qu???c h???i Anh l???t ????? m???t v??? vua C??ng gi??o (James II), m?? n??n ???????c hi???u l?? s??? kh???i ?????u c???a m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng th??? gi???i gi??nh c??ng b???ng. ?????ng ngh?? ?????n chi???n tr???n. Thay v??o ????, h??y ngh?? v??? nh???ng qu??n c?? ph?? v???i nh???ng t??? b??o ???????c chia s??? mi???n ph?? v???n tr??? n??n ph??? bi???n kho???ng th???i gian ???? ??? nh???ng ?????a ??i???m d??nh cho s??? trao ?????i th??ng tin ph???c t???p. Th???m ch??, C??ch m???ng Vinh quang ???? ????nh d???u r?? r??ng s??? kh???i ?????u th???a nh???n kh???p th??? gi???i v??? t??nh ch??nh danh c???a m???t nh??m ng?????i kh??ng chia s??? s??? ???th???ng nh???t t?? t?????ng??? m?? m???t v??? vua nhi???u quy???n l???c ????i h???i.

Cu???n s??ch nh??? c?? nhan ????? Common Sense (L??? th??ng th?????ng) c???a Thomas Painet??c ph???m b??n r???t ch???y ??? M?????i ba Thu???c ?????a Anh ??? B???c M??? sau khi ???????c xu???t b???n v??o th??ng 1 n??m 1776, ????nh d???u m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng kh??c, kh??c v???i cu???c Chi???n tranh C??ch m???ng ch???ng l???i Anh n??? ra v??o n??m sau ???? (v?? c?? nhi???u nguy??n nh??n). T???m ???nh h?????ng c???a Common Sense l?? v?? h???n, b???i v?? n?? kh??ng ch??? ???????c b??n ra m?? c??n ???????c ?????c to ??? nh?? th??? v?? nh???ng bu???i h???i h???p. Quan ni???m r???ng v?? l?? do n??o ???? m?? nh???ng b???c qu??n v????ng th??? t???p ??u vi???t h??n ch??ng ta v??? m???t tinh th???n ???? b??? ki??n quy???t ph???n ?????i. Ph???n l???n th??? gi???i ng??y nay, bao g???m c??? n?????c Anh, c??ng ?????ng ?? v???i ??i???u ????.

??i???u t????ng t??? c??ng c?? th??? n??i l?? ????ng v???i vi???c b??i b??? d???n ch??? ????? n?? l???, v???n ?????t ???????c g???n nh?? kh??ng qua chi???n tranh, m?? qua nh???n th???c ph??? bi???n m???i xu???t hi???n v??? s??? t??n ??c v?? b???t c??ng c???a n??. C??c cu???c n???i d???y n??m 1848 tr??n kh???p ch??u ??u th???c ch???t l?? m???t cu???c bi???u t??nh ch???ng l???i c??c ?????o lu???t b???u c??? ch??? gi???i h???n quy???n b??? phi???u trong m???t nh??m thi???u s??? nam gi???i: gi???i ??i???n ch??? ho???c qu?? t???c. Quy???n b???u c??? cho ph??? n??? ?????n sau ???? kh??ng l??u. Trong th??? k??? 20 v?? 21, ch??ng ta ???? ch???ng ki???n d??n quy???n ???????c m??? r???ng ?????n c??c nh??m thi???u s??? v??? ch???ng t???c v?? gi???i t??nh.

T???t c??? c??c cu???c ???c??ch m???ng c??ng l????? trong qu?? kh??? ?????u b???t ngu???n t??? truy???n th??ng ???????c c???i thi???n. ??p b???c ph??t tri???n m???nh ??? nh???ng n??i xa x??i, n??i ta kh??ng th??? g???p ho???c nh??n th???y nh???ng ng?????i ch???u ??p b???c.

Cu???c c??ch m???ng ti???p theo s??? kh??ng x??a b??? nh???ng h??? qu??? c???a vi???c ng?????i ta sinh ra ??? ????u, nh??ng nh???ng ?????c quy???n c???a vi???c l?? c??ng d??n n?????c n??o s??? b??? th??ch th???c. Trong khi s??? tr???i d???y c???a th??i ????? b??i ng?????i nh???p c?? tr??n kh???p th??? gi???i ng??y nay d?????ng nh?? ??m ch??? ??i???u ng?????c l???i, c???m quan v??? s??? b???t c??ng s??? t??ng l??n khi truy???n th??ng ti???p t???c ph??t tri???n. Cu???i c??ng, s??? th???a nh???n c??i sai s??? d???n ?????n nh???ng thay ?????i l???n.

Hi???n nay, s??? th???a nh???n n??y v???n v???p ph???i s??? c???nh tranh m???nh m??? t??? nh???ng t??nh c???m y??u n?????c v???n b???t ngu???n t??? m???t kh??? ?????c x?? h???i gi???a nh???ng c??ng d??n ???? ????ng thu??? trong nhi???u n??m ho???c th???c hi???n ngh??a v??? qu??n s??? ????? x??y d???ng hay b???o v??? nh???ng ??i???u m?? h??? th???y ch??? thu???c v??? ri??ng h??? m?? th??i. Cho ph??p nh???p c?? kh??ng h???n ch??? d?????ng nh?? ???? ph?? v??? kh??? ?????c n??y.

Nh??ng nh???ng b?????c quan tr???ng nh???t ????? gi???i quy???t s??? b???t c??ng v??? n??i sinh c?? th??? s??? kh??ng nh???m t???i s??? di c??. Thay v??o ????, ch??ng s??? t???p trung v??o ?????y m???nh t??? do kinh t???.

N??m 1948, ????????nh l?? c??n b???ng gi?? y???u t??? s???n xu???t??? (factor price equalization theorem) c???a Paul A. Samuelson ???? ch??? ra m???t c??ch r?? r??ng r???ng trong ??i???u ki???n t??? do th????ng m???i kh??ng gi???i h???n v?? kh??ng c?? chi ph?? v???n chuy???n (c??ng v???i nh???ng gi??? ?????nh l?? t?????ng h??a kh??c), c??c l???c l?????ng th??? tr?????ng s??? c??n b???ng gi?? c???a m???i y???u t??? s???n xu???t, bao g???m ti???n l????ng cho b???t k??? d???ng lao ?????ng chu???n h??a n??o, tr??n kh???p th??? gi???i. Trong m???t th??? gi???i ho??n h???o, con ng?????i kh??ng ph???i ?????n m???t ?????t n?????c kh??c ????? c?? thu nh???p cao h??n. Cu???i c??ng, h??? ch??? c???n c?? kh??? n??ng tham gia v??o s???n xu???t s???n ph???m c?? th??? b??n tr??n th??? tr?????ng qu???c t???.

Khi c??ng ngh??? l??m gi???m chi ph?? v???n chuy???n v?? th??ng tin li??n l???c t???i g???n ??i???m bi???n m???t, vi???c ?????t ???????c s??? c??n b???ng n??y ??ang ng??y c??ng kh??? thi h??n. Nh??ng ??i???u ???? ????i h???i ph???i lo???i b??? nh???ng r??o c???n c?? v?? ng??n ch???n s??? xu???t hi???n c???a nh???ng r??o c???n m???i.

C??c hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i t??? do ??ang ???????c th???o lu???n g???n ????y, Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng (Trans-Pacific Partnership ??? TPP) v?? Hi???p ?????nh Th????ng m???i T??? do xuy??n ?????i T??y D????ng (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership ??? TTIP), ???? b??? ????nh tr??? v?? n??? l???c c???a m???t s??? nh??m l???i ??ch nh???m b??? cong ch??ng cho m???c ????ch c???a h???. Tuy nhi??n, cu???i c??ng ch??ng ta c???n ??? v?? c?? th??? s??? ??? ?????t ???????c nh???ng hi???p ?????nh th???m ch?? c??n t???t h??n th???.

????? ?????t ???????c s??? c??n b???ng gi?? y???u t??? s???n xu???t, con ng?????i c???n n???n t???ng ???n ?????nh cho m???t ngh??? nghi???p th???c s??? su???t ?????i g???n v???i m???t ?????t n?????c n??i m?? h??? kh??ng c?? tr??. Ch??ng ta c??ng c???n b???o v??? nh???ng ng?????i thua thi???t b???i th????ng m???i qu???c t??? trong c??c qu???c gia-d??n t???c hi???n c??. H??? tr??? ??i???u ch???nh Th????ng m???i (Trade Adjustment Assistance ??? TAA) b???t ngu???n t???i M??? t??? n??m 1974. Canada ???? th??? nghi???m D??? ??n H??? tr??? Thu nh???p v??o n??m 1995. Qu??? ??i???u ch???nh To??n c???u ho?? ch??u ??u, b???t ?????u n??m 2006, c?? ng??n s??ch h??ng n??m khi??m t???n ??? m???c 150 tri???u EUR (168,6 tri???u USD). T???ng th???ng M??? Barack Obama ???? ????? xu???t m??? r???ng ch????ng tr??nh TAA. Tuy nhi??n, cho ?????n nay, ?? ngh??a c???a ??i???u n??y v???n ch??? ??? m???c nh???ng th??? nghi???m hay ????? xu???t.

Cu???i c??ng, cu???c c??ch m???ng ti???p theo r???t c?? th??? s??? b???t ngu???n t??? nh???ng t????ng t??c h??ng ng??y tr??n m??n h??nh m??y t??nh v???i nh???ng ng?????i n?????c ngo??i m?? ch??ng ta c?? th??? th???y h??? th??ng minh v?? t??? t??? ??? nh???ng ng?????i ng???u nhi??n s???ng trong ngh??o ????i m?? kh??ng ph???i do l???a ch???n c???a h???. ??i???u n??y s??? d???n ?????n nh???ng hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i t???t h??n, d???a tr??n gi??? ?????nh v??? s??? ph??t tri???n cu???i c??ng nh???ng m???c b???o hi???m x?? h???i l???n h??n nh???m b???o v??? ng?????i d??n trong m???t ?????t n?????c khi chuy???n ?????i sang m???t n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u c??ng b???ng h??n.

Robert J. Shiller, ch??? nh??n gi???i Nobel Kinh t??? n??m 2013, l?? gi??o s?? ng??nh kinh t??? h???c t???i ?????i h???c Yale v?? l?? ?????ng t??c gi??? c???a Ch??? s??? Case-Shiller v??? gi?? c??? nh?? ??? t???i M???.

T???i sao Trump c???n gi???i th??ch ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c cho ng?????i d??n M????

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Ngu???n: Min Xinpei, ???The US Needs to Talk About China???, Project Syndicate, 22/07/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

Trong t???t c??? nh???ng thay ?????i ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i M??? m?? ch??nh quy???n T???ng th???ng Donald Trump ???? th???c hi???n, thay ?????i h??? tr???ng nh???t l?? vi???c ??p d???ng m???t l???p tr?????ng mang t??nh ?????i ?????u v???i Trung Qu???c. C??ch ti???p c???n c???a Trump ???? thay th??? cho m???t ch??nh s??ch h???p t??c k??o d??i h??ng th???p ni??n, kh??ng ch??? d???n ?????n m???t cu???c chi???n tranh l???nh v??? kinh t??? gi???a hai n???n kinh t??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i m?? c??n l??m d???y l??n n???i ??m ???nh v??? xung ?????t v?? trang ??? Bi???n ????ng v?? Eo bi???n ????i Loan.

Trong n??m ?????u ti??n c???a nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng, Trump ???? g??n cho Trung Qu???c t??n g???i ????????i th?????? c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c v?? ???c?????ng qu???c ?????i ?????ch???. Nh??ng ???? kh??ng ch??? l?? quan ??i???m c???a Trump: ?????i v???i gi???i ch???c an ninh qu???c gia Hoa K??? v?? c??c ngh??? s?? h??ng ?????u c???a ?????ng C???ng h??a ??? c??ng nh?? m???t s??? ngh??? s?? ?????ng D??n ch??? ??? Trung Qu???c l?? m???i ??e d???a l??u d??i nghi??m tr???ng nh???t ?????i v???i v??? th??? v?????t tr???i to??n c???u v?? l???i ??ch s???ng c??n c???a n?????c M???.

?????a ch??nh tr??? l?? nguy??n nh??n ch??nh d???n ?????n s??? suy tho??i nhanh ch??ng c???a quan h??? M???-Trung trong hai n??m qua, v?? cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i c???a Trump ph???i ???????c xem x??t trong b???i c???nh n??y. Thu??? quan c???a M??? c?? th??? t???p trung v??o m???c ti??u l??m suy y???u ti???m n??ng kinh t??? l??u d??i c???a Trung Qu???c, nh??ng ?????ng l???c c?? b???n l?? l??m suy y???u vai tr?? ?????i th??? chi???n l?????c c???a n?????c n??y.

??i???u n??y l?? r?? r??ng t??? th???c t??? r???ng b???t ch???p c??c bi???n minh kinh t??? c???a Trump ??? b???o v??? t??i s???n tr?? tu??? c???a c??c doanh nghi???p M??? v?? ??i???u ch???nh s??? m???t c??n b???ng th????ng m???i song ph????ng kh???ng l??? ??? th?? c??c bi???n ph??p thu??? quan c???a ??ng s??? c?? th??? g??y t???n h???i nghi??m tr???ng cho n???n kinh t??? M??? v?? ch??ng l??m ????? v??? m???i quan h??? kinh t??? ???????c x??y d???ng h??n b???n th???p ni??n qua. X??t v??? b???n ch???t, ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c c???a M??? ???? tr??? n??n ho??n to??n th?? ?????ch.

S??? thay ?????i n??y ???? g??y b??o ?????ng cho m???t s??? h???c gi??? nghi??n c???u Trung Qu???c v?? c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch gi??u kinh nghi???m t??? c??c ch??nh quy???n tr?????c. Trong m???t b???c th?? ng???, g???n 100 ng?????i trong s??? h??? ??? bao g???m c??? th??nh vi??n ?????ng C???ng h??a v?? D??n ch???, c??ng nh?? nhi???u ng?????i hay ch??? tr??ch ch??nh s??ch v?? h??nh vi c???a Trung Qu???c ??? g???n ????y ???? k??u g???i Trump kh??ng coi Trung Qu???c l?? k??? th??.

C??ng ch??ng M??? d?????ng nh?? ph???n l???n ?????ng ??. Ch???c ch???n, c?? m???t ??c c???m lan r???ng ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c tr??n kh???p Hoa K???: theo kh???o s??t g???n ????y nh???t c???a Trung t??m Nghi??n c???u Pew v??? v???n ????? n??y (???????c th???c hi???n v??o th??ng 8 n??m 2018), ch??? c?? 38% ng?????i M??? nh??n nh???n t??ch c???c v??? Trung Qu???c, trong khi 47% c?? quan ??i???m ti??u c???c. Nh??ng ch??? c?? 29% s??? ng?????i ???????c h???i cho r???ng s???c m???nh qu??n s??? c???a Trung Qu???c l?? m???t nguy??n nh??n g??y lo ng???i. M???t ph???n l???n h??n nhi???u ??? 58% ??? lo l???ng v??? s???c m???nh kinh t??? c???a n?????c n??y. ??i???u n??y cho th???y, trong m???t c???a h???u h???t ng?????i M???, m???c ti??u ch??nh c???a quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c l?? b???o v??? sinh k??? c???a h???, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? ????? b???t ?????u m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u ?????a ch??nh tr???.

Tuy nhi??n, m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u ?????a ch??nh tr??? d?????ng nh?? ch??nh l?? nh???ng g?? ch??nh quy???n Trump ??ang mu???n t???o ra ??? c?? th??? ph???i tr??? gi?? b???ng sinh k??? c???a nhi???u ng?????i M???. S??? kh??c bi???t n??y ph???n ??nh m???c ????? m?? c??c thay ?????i ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c c???a M??? ???? x???y ra ngo??i t???m quan s??t c???a ng?????i d??n v?? kh??ng c?? tranh lu???n m???.

M???t cu???c tranh lu???n nh?? v???y l?? h???t s???c c???p b??ch. M???c d?? cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i ???? thu h??t m???i s??? ch?? ?? k??? t??? khi b???t ?????u, nh??ng ph???n l???n c??ng ch??ng M??? kh??ng bi???t v??? m???c ????? thay ?????i trong ch??nh s??ch c???a Hoa K??? ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c, khi???n ?????t n?????c c???a h??? c?? nguy c?? r??i v??o m???t cu???c xung ?????t kh??ng bi???t bao gi??? k???t th??c v???i n???n kinh t??? s??? s???m tr??? th??nh l???n nh???t th??? gi???i ??i k??m v???i quy???n l???c ??ang l??n c???a n??.

Trong m???t n???n d??n ch???, m???t ch??nh ph??? kh??ng th??? theo ??u???i m???t cu???c ?????u tranh l??u d??i v???i m???t k??? th?? ?????a ch??nh tr??? m???nh m??? m?? kh??ng c?? s??? ???ng h??? ch??nh tr??? b???n v???ng t??? m???t c??ng ch??ng ???????c th??ng tin ?????y ?????. C???n ch?? ?? ?????c bi???t ?????n nh???ng ng?????i tr??? tu???i (theo Pew, h??? c?? quan ??i???m t??ch c???c h??n v??? Trung Qu???c so v???i nh???ng ng?????i l???n tu???i), b???i v?? h??? s??? ch???u g??nh n???ng ph?? t???n t??? cu???c chi???n tranh l???nh Trung-M??? ??ang di???n ra.

????? m???t cu???c tranh lu???n nh?? v???y ????ng tin, ch??nh quy???n Trump s??? c???n ph???i tr??? l???i c??c c??u h???i quan tr???ng v??? ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c c???a m??nh. ?????u ti??n v?? quan tr???ng nh???t ch??nh l?? m???c ti??u t???i h???u c???a ch??nh s??ch l?? g??? C??c c??u tr??? l???i c?? th??? bao g???m: s???a ?????i c??c h??nh vi ho???c ch??nh s??ch nh???t ?????nh c???a Trung Qu???c, ng??n ch???n s???c m???nh kinh t??? ho???c qu??n s??? c???a Trung Qu???c; ho???c thay ?????i ch??? ????? c???a Trung Qu???c.

Ch??nh quy???n Trump sau ???? s??? ph???i gi???i th??ch c??ch m?? h??? d??? ?????nh ?????t ???????c m???c ti??u ???? n??u. Li???u s??? ???t??ch r???i kinh t??????, ???????c ??u ti??n b???i nh???ng quan ch???c di???u h??u v??? Trung Qu???c trong ch??nh quy???n Trump, c?? ph???i l?? m???t chi???n l?????c hi???u qu??? hay kh??? thi? C??c t??c gi??? c???a b???c th?? ng??? g???n ????y cho r???ng nh???ng n??? l???c c???a Hoa K??? nh???m t??ch r???i Trung Qu???c kh???i n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u ???s??? l??m t???n h???i ?????n vai tr?? v?? uy t??n qu???c t??? c???a M???, v?? l??m suy y???u l???i ??ch kinh t??? c???a t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia???. V?? li???u M??? c?? th??? thuy???t ph???c c??c n?????c kh??c ??? k??? c??c c??c ?????ng minh truy???n th???ng c???a m??nh ??? ???ng h??? nh???ng n??? l???c ???? hay kh??ng, hay M??? s???n s??ng (ho???c c?? th???) ????n ph????ng h??nh ?????ng?

B???t c??? ch??nh s??ch n??o ???????c ch???n th?? ch??nh quy???n Trump c??ng ph???i bi???n minh ???????c cho ch??nh s??ch ????. H???i th??ng 10 n??m ngo??i, Ph?? T???ng th???ng Mike Pence tr??n th???c t??? ???? tuy??n b??? m???t cu???c ???chi???n tranh l???nh??? ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c trong m???t b??i ph??t bi???u m???nh m??? ch???a m???t lo???t c??c c??o bu???c, bao g???m c??? s??? can thi???p v??o ch??nh tr??? Hoa K??? l???n s??? ??p b???c ?????i v???i ch??nh ng?????i d??n Trung Qu???c. ??i???u m?? Pence ??? v?? nh???ng ng?????i kh??c trong ch??nh quy???n Trump ??? ???? kh??ng ????a ra l?? m???t l???i bi???n minh h???p l?? cho vi???c M??? ?????i x??? v???i Trung Qu???c nh?? m???t m???i ??e d???a s???ng c??n.

C??u h???i cu???i c??ng ph???i ???????c ?????t ra li??n quan ?????n h???p t??c ??a ph????ng. ????? ??????ng ?????u v???i nh???ng th??ch th???c chung ??? m?? m???t s??? trong ????, nh?? bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u v?? ph??? bi???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, th???c s??? l?? nh???ng m???i ??e d???a s???ng c??n ??? th??? gi???i c???n m???t s??? h???p t??c nh?? v???y h??n bao gi??? h???t. M??? c?? th??? th???c hi???n m???t ch??nh s??ch ?????i ?????u v???i Trung Qu???c m?? kh??ng ng??n c???n s??? h???p t??c trong c??c v???n ????? c???n thi???t hay kh??ng?

Nh???ng ng?????i k?? l?? th?? ng??? ??? c??ng nh?? m???t lo???t c??c nh?? kinh t???, ch??nh tr??? gia v?? nh?? t?? t?????ng n???i ti???ng ??? ???? tr??nh b??y m???t tuy??n b??? ?????y ????? v?? hi???u bi???t cho th???y quan ??i???m t???p th??? c???a h??? v??? Trung Qu???c. ???? ?????n l??c ch??nh quy???n Trump ph???i l??m r?? t???m nh??n v?? m???c ti??u c???a m??nh cho nh???ng ng?????i d??n m?? h??? ???????c cho l?? ?????i di???n.

Minxin Pei l?? gi??o s?? ng??nh qu???n tr??? ch??nh quy???n c???a ?????i h???c Claremont McKenna v?? l?? t??c gi??? cu???n China???s Crony Capitalism.

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