D??? ??n K??nh ????o Kra c???a Th??i Lan: L???ch s???, hi???n tr???ng v?? tri???n v???ng

Ngu???n: Ian Storey, ???Thailand???s Perennial Kra Canal Project: Pros, Cons and Potential Game Changers???, ISEAS Perspective, 24/09/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Tr???n M???n Linh | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Gi???i thi???u

??t c?? d??? ??n x??y d???ng l???n n??o n???m tr??n b???ng v??? l??u nh?? k??nh ????o Kra c???a Th??i Lan. ?? t?????ng x??y d???ng m???t tuy???n ???????ng th???y qua Eo ?????t Kra ??? v??ng Th?????ng Nam ?????t n?????c ????? n???i V???nh Th??i Lan v???i bi???n Andaman ??? t??? ???? n???i Th??i B??nh D????ng v???i ???n ????? D????ng ??? ???????c ????? xu???t l???n ?????u c??ch ????y h??n 300 n??m. K??? t??? ????, d??? ??n ???? ???????c t??i sinh nhi???u l???n, d???n ?????n m???t lo???t c??c cu???c kh???o s??t k??? thu???t v?? nghi??n c???u kh??? thi ?????t ?????, tr?????c khi l???ng l??? b??? h???y b???.

Nh???ng l???p lu???n ???ng h??? v?? ph???n ?????i k??nh ????o Kra ???? t???n t???i v?? ???????c l???p ??i l???p l???i t??? l??u.

Nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? k??nh ????o ch??? ra c??c l???i ??ch kinh t??? v?? chi???n l?????c m?? Th??i Lan s??? nh???n ???????c. H??? l???p lu???n r???ng vi???c x??y d???ng k??nh ????o d??i 100 km v?? c?? s??? h??? t???ng c??ng nghi???p li??n quan nh?? c???ng, nh?? m??y s???n xu???t v?? nh?? m??y l???c d???u, s??? t???o c??ng ??n vi???c l??m cho h??ng ch???c ngh??n c??ng nh??n Th??i Lan, k??ch th??ch n???n kinh t??? (?????c bi???t l?? trong giai ??o???n suy tho??i), v?? v??? l??u d??i s??? t???o ra doanh thu t??? ho???t ?????ng thu ph?? qu?? c???nh. V??? m???t qu??n s???, k??nh ????o s??? cho ph??p h???i qu??n Th??i Lan di chuy???n t??u nhanh ch??ng t??? b??? bi???n ph??a b??n n??y sang b??? b??n kia trong l??c nguy c???p. Kh??ng ch??? v???y, k??nh ????o Kra c??n m??? ra m???t tuy???n ???????ng nhanh v?? ti???t ki???m h??n gi???a ???n ????? D????ng v?? Bi???n ????ng, t??? ???? ????a ?????n m???t gi???i ph??p thay th??? kh??? thi cho Eo bi???n Malacca ng??y c??ng qu?? t???i v?? ???b??? qu???y ph?? b???i h???i t???c???.

Nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch k??nh ????o v???n c???m th???y kh??ng thuy???t ph???c. H??? ch??? y???u cho r???ng k??nh ????o Kra kh??ng kh??? thi v??? m???t th????ng m???i: chi ph?? x??y d???ng kh???ng l??? kh??ng th??? l???y l???i ???????c t??? ph?? qu?? c???nh b???i c??c c??ng ty v???n chuy???n s??? kh??ng s???n l??ng ch???u th??m chi ph?? ch??? ????? ti???t ki???m hai ho???c ba ng??y ???????ng (?????c bi???t l?? v??o th???i ??i???m gi?? d???u th???p). Tr?????ng h???p n??y kh?? kh??c v???i tr?????ng h???p c???a k??nh ????o Suez v?? Panama, khi hai k??nh ????o n??y gi??p t??u thuy???n ti???t ki???m ???????c h??ng tu???n ??i bi???n. V??? m???t l???i ??ch chi???n l?????c, c??c nh?? ph?? b??nh cho r???ng Th??i Lan kh??ng ph???i ?????i m???t v???i m???i ??e d???a n??o t??? c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng, m???t k??nh ????o s??? chia c???t ?????t n?????c th??nh hai n???a v?? do ???? ti???p th??m ?????ng l???c cho nh???ng k??? ly khai ??? mi???n H??? Nam, ?????ng th???i quy???n s??? h???u v?? v???n h??nh tuy???n ???????ng th???y ch???c ch???n s??? b??? cu???n v??o cu???c ??ua quy???n l???c c???a c??c n?????c l???n.

K??? t??? cu???c ?????o ch??nh n??m 2014, ????? xu???t x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra l???i xu???t hi???n tr??? l???i. L???n n??y, nh???ng ng?????i b???o v??? d??? ??n cho r???ng t??nh th??? ??ang ng??? v??? h?????ng ???ng h??? k??nh ????o v?? ba l?? do ch??nh. Th??? nh???t, Th??i Lan c?? m???t v??? vua m???i v?? nh?? vua c???n c???ng c??? di s???n c???a m??nh. Th??? hai, Trung Qu???c h???ng th?? v???i vi???c ?????u t?? v??o c??c d??? ??n c?? s??? h??? t???ng khu v???c nh?? k??nh ????o Kra trong khu??n kh??? S??ng ki???n ??????V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng (BRI). V?? th??? ba, ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan ???? ban h??nh m???t chi???n l?????c ph??t tri???n qu???c gia cho hai th???p ni??n t???i, trong ???? nh???n m???nh t???m quan tr???ng c???a c??c s??ng ki???n ??????k???t n???i to??n c???u.

Sau ph???n t???ng quan v???n t???t v??? l???ch s??? c???a tuy???n ???????ng th???y ???????c ????? xu???t, b??i lu???n n??y s??? ????nh gi?? c??c nh??n t??? c?? kh??? n??ng thay ?????i cu???c ch??i v?? k???t lu???n r???ng ch??ng kh??ng th??c ?????y ???????c tri???n v???ng c???a k??nh ????o l?? bao.

L???ch s??? ba tr??m n??m 

M???c d?? vi???c x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra ???????c c??n nh???c l???n ?????u v??o n??m 1677, v?? m???t l???n n???a v??o n??m 1793, nh??ng ph???i ?????n th??? k??? 19 b???n ????? xu???t n??y m???i nh???n ???????c s??? quan t??m nghi??m t??c. Tuy nhi??n, s??? quan t??m n??y kh??ng ch??? ?????n t??? Th??i Lan, m?? c??n t??? c??c c?????ng qu???c thu???c ?????a ?????i ?????ch l?? Anh v?? Ph??p.

Gi???a th??? k??? 19, ng?????i Anh ???? nghi??n c???u t??nh kh??? thi c???a vi???c x??y d???ng tuy???n ???????ng s???t hay k??nh ????o qua Eo ?????t Kra ????? t???o thu???n l???i cho th????ng m???i gi???a ???n ????? v?? Trung Qu???c. C??c k??? s?? ng?????i Anh ???? ti???n h??nh c??c cu???c kh???o s??t v??o n??m 1843, 1849, 1863 v?? 1872. H??? k???t lu???n r???ng, d?? vi???c thi c??ng m???t tuy???n ???????ng s???t hay k??nh ????o kh??? thi v??? m???t k??? thu???t nh??ng chi ph?? b??? ra s??? v?? c??ng cao. Ng?????i Ph??p th?? l???i c?? nh???ng suy ngh?? kh??c. N??m 1883, B?? t?????c Bertrand-Francois Mah?? de La Bourdonnais, m???t s?? quan h???i qu??n Ph??p v?? qu???n tr??? vi??n t???i C??ng ty ????ng ???n Ph??p ???? ???ng h??? m???t k??nh ????o Kra v???i m???c ti??u th??c ?????y l???i ??ch th????ng m???i c???a Ph??p ??? ????ng D????ng. Bourdonnais d??? t??nh r???ng m???t khi k??nh ????o ???????c ho??n th??nh, m???t S??i G??n do Ph??p ki???m so??t s??? v?????t qua m???t Singapore do Anh ??i???u h??nh ????? tr??? th??nh khu c???ng quan tr???ng nh???t ????ng Nam ??. Nh???m b???o v??? l???i ??ch th????ng m???i c???a m??nh tr??n B??n ?????o Malay, Anh ???? ph???n ?????i k??nh ????o v?? bu???c c??c qu???c v????ng v?? ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan li??n ti???p b??c b??? ????? ngh??? c???a Ph??p. Hai l???n v??o n??m 1897 v?? 1946, Anh ???? bu???c Xi??m k?? c??c th???a thu???n m?? trong ???? ?????ng ?? kh??ng cho ph??p x??y d???ng m???t k??nh ????o li??n ?????i d????ng.

M??i ?????n ?????u nh???ng n??m 1970, d??? ??n k??nh ????o m???i ???????c xem x??t l???i. N??m 1972, m???t nh?? c??ng nghi???p ng?????i Th??i g???c Hoa, K.Y. Chow, ???? thuy???t ph???c ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan xem x??t d??? ??n n??y. C??ng nh?? c??c ????? xu???t tr?????c ????y, Chow l???p lu???n r???ng m???c d?? chi ph?? x??y d???ng s??? ?????t ????? nh??ng cu???i c??ng k??nh ????o s??? thu v??? l???i nhu???n t??? c??c ho???t ?????ng c???ng, ph?? qu?? c???nh v?? ph?? trung chuy???n. Chow ???? t??i tr??? cho m???t nghi??n c???u kh??? thi tr??? gi?? 400.000 USD ???????c th???c hi???n b???i c??ng ty t?? v???n Tippetts-Abbett-McCarthy-Stratton (TAMS) c???a Hoa K???. Trong s??? ch??n tuy???n ???????ng kh??? thi ???????c kh???o s??t, TAMS ????? xu???t Tuy???n 5A: tuy???n k??nh m???t chi???u d??i 102 km t??? b??? bi???n ph??a t??y Satun ?????n Songkhla ??? ph??a ????ng. TAMS ?????c t??nh s??? m???t 12 n??m ????? x??y d???ng k??nh ????o v???i chi ph?? 5,6 t??? USD; ho???c m?????i n??m v?? 3,5 t??? USD n???u c??ng vi???c ph?? ???? s??? d???ng thi???t b??? n??? h???t nh??n lo???i nh???. Tuy nhi??n, ngay sau khi TAMS ????? tr??nh b??o c??o l??n ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan, cu???c kh???ng ho???ng d???u m??? n??m 1973 ???? g??y ra suy tho??i kinh t??? to??n c???u v?? d??? ??n b??? ho??n l???i. Trong su???t nh???ng n??m 1970 v?? 1980, Nh???t B???n th???nh tho???ng l???i b??y t??? quan t??m ?????n vi???c t??i tr??? x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra. D???u m??? nh???p kh???u c???a Nh???t B???n t??? Trung ????ng ph??? thu???c r???t nhi???u v??o Eo bi???n Malacca, v?? v??o ?????u nh???ng n??m 1970, Tokyo tr??? n??n lo ng???i khi Indonesia v?? Malaysia ????? xu???t ????a ra c??c h???n ch??? ?????i v???i quy m?? t??u ch??? d???u ??i qua eo bi???n n??y. V??o gi???a nh???ng n??m 1980, Vi???n nghi??n c???u Mitsubishi Nh???t B???n ???? xem x??t l???i c??c khuy???n ngh??? c???a TAMS (bao g???m c??? n??? ph?? ???? b???ng h???t nh??n) nh??ng kh??ng c?? ti???n tri???n n??o sau ????.

?????u nh???ng n??m 2000, trong nhi???m k??? th??? t?????ng c???a Thaksin Shinawatra, k??nh ????o Kra ???? xu???t hi???n tr??? l???i trong ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? qu???c gia c???a Th??i Lan. S??ng ki???n ??????n??y ???????c d???n ?????u b???i Ph?? Th??? t?????ng v?? B??? tr?????ng Qu???c ph??ng Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, m???t v??? t?????ng ???? ngh??? h??u c???a Qu??n ?????i Ho??ng gia Th??i Lan. Chavalit c??ng ???ng h??? k??nh Kra b???i kh??? n??ng t???o ra h??ng ngh??n vi???c l??m v?? t??? chi tr??? trong m???t kho???ng th???i gian ng???n. Theo Chavalit ??? ?????i t??c c???a qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c trong Kh???ng ho???ng Campuchia nh???ng n??m 1980 ??? Trung Qu???c l?? m???t trong c??c qu???c gia ????ng ?? quan t??m ?????n vi???c t??i tr??? cho k??nh ????o. M???t nghi??n c???u kh??? thi kh??c ???? ???????c tri???n khai, nh??ng d??? ??n ???? ????? b??? trong v??ng v??i n??m gi???a nh???ng c??o bu???c v??? qu???n l?? t??i ch??nh v?? tham nh??ng. N??m 2005, Thaksin ????? xu???t x??y d???ng m???t ???????ng ???ng d???n d???u qua eo ?????t Kra nh?? m???t ph????ng ??n thay th??? r??? h??n cho k??nh ????o. D??? ??n ???? k???t th??c khi Thaksin b??? qu??n ?????i l???t ????? n??m 2006.

K??nh ????o Kra giai ??o???n sau ?????o ch??nh 2014 

K??? t??? cu???c ?????o ch??nh qu??n s??? n??m 2014, k??nh ????o Kra m???t l???n n???a b?????c v??o cu???c tranh lu???n ch??nh s??ch qu???c gia. C?? hai phe ???ng h??? ch??nh: Hi???p h???i Kinh t??? v?? V??n h??a Th??i Lan-Trung Qu???c (TCCEA) v?? Hi???p h???i Nghi??n c???u v?? Ph??t tri???n K??nh ????o Th??i Lan (TCASD).

N??m 2015, TCCEA ???? k??u g???i ch??nh quy???n qu??n s??? ???ng h??? x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra b???ng c??ch s??? d???ng Tuy???n 5A c???a TAMS. Theo ph?? gi??m ?????c c???a hi???p h???i, Pakdee Tanapura, d??? ??n s??? ti??u t???n 20 t??? USD v?? m???t t??m n??m ????? ho??n th??nh.

Trong m???t s??? ki???n c??ng n??m d?? d?????ng nh?? kh??ng li??n quan, c?? th??ng tin cho r???ng hai ????n v??? l?? T???p ??o??n Li??n hi???p Ch??u ?? c???a Th??i Lan (AUG), ??i???u h??nh b???i c???u Th??? t?????ng Chavalit, v?? C??ng ty ?????u t?? v?? Ph??t tri???n H??? t???ng Kra Trung Qu???c-Th??i Lan ?????t t???i Trung Qu???c (CTKIID) ???? k?? m???t b???n ghi nh??? (MOU) v??? x??y d???ng m???t k??nh ????o qua Eo ?????t Kra. Tuy nhi??n, c??? ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan v?? Trung Qu???c ?????u tuy??n b??? m???nh m??? kh??ng li??n quan g?? t???i MOU n??y, trong khi Chavalit ph??? nh???n m???i li??n h??? v???i AUG. Kh??ng ai c??n nghe ?????n MOU, AUG v?? CTKIID k??? t??? ????.

N??m 2017, m???t nh??m doanh nh??n v?? s?? quan qu??n ?????i ???? ngh??? h??u ???? th??nh l???p TCASD ????? ???ng h??? vi???c x??y d???ng k??nh ????o (m?? h??? th??ch g???i l?? ???K??nh ????o Th??i??? h??n l?? k??nh ????o Kra). ???????c d???n d???t b???i m???t v??? t?????ng ???? ngh??? h??u, Pongthep Tesprateep, TCASD ???? ????? xu???t d??ng Tuy???n 9A c???a TAMS ??? con k??nh d??i 120km t??? b??? bi???n ph??a t??y Krabi ?????n b??? bi???n ph??a ????ng Nakhon Si Thammarat. H??? cho r???ng, ??i???m cu???i ph??a ????ng c???a k??nh ????o Th??i Lan s??? ho??n thi???n H??nh lang Kinh t??? ph??a ????ng (EEC), m???t trung t??m ?????i m???i v?? v???n t???i c??ng ngh??? cao tr??? gi?? 40 t??? USD tr???i d??i qua ba t???nh tr??n V???nh Th??i Lan, d??? ki???n ??????ho??n th??nh v??o kho???ng gi???a n??m 2021 v?? 2025. ????? th???o lu???n k??? h??n v??? ????? xu???t n??y, TCASD ???? t??? ch???c m???t h???i ngh??? v??? k??nh ????o ??? Bangkok v??o th??ng 9/2017.

Ba nh??n t??? ti???m n??ng thay ?????i cu???c ch??i

C??? TCCEA v?? TCASD ?????u d??ng nh???ng lu???n ??i???m c?? ????? b???o v??? k??nh ????o: r???ng vi???c x??y d???ng n?? s??? ????ng vai tr?? l?? ?????ng l???c cho n???n kinh t??? Th??i Lan v?? cung c???p cho c??c c??ng ty v???n t???i m???t gi???i ph??p nhanh h??n, an to??n h??n thay cho Eo bi???n Malacca. Tuy nhi??n, nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? k??nh ????o c??ng cho r???ng ba nh??n t??? ti???m n??ng thay ?????i cu???c ch??i ???? khi???n k??nh Kra tr??? th??nh m???t ????? xu???t kh??? thi h??n so v???i tr?????c ????y.

?????u ti??n l?? v??? qu???c v????ng m???i c???a Th??i Lan. Th??ng 12 n??m 2016, 50 ng??y sau khi cha ??ng, Vua Bhumipol Adulyadej qua ?????i, Vua Vajirasongkorn tr??? th??nh v??? vua th??? m?????i c???a tri???u ?????i Chakri. L??? ????ng quang c???a ??ng di???n ra v??o th??ng 5/2019. ??? tu???i 64, Vajirasongkorn l?? v??? vua l???n tu???i nh???t c???a Th??i Lan khi l??n ng??i. Vi???c hi???n th???c h??a gi???c m?? ba th??? k??? c???a V????ng qu???c ??? x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra ??? s??? c???ng c??? di s???n c???a ??ng, ?????c bi???t n???u k??nh ????o ???????c ?????t theo t??n ??ng. Tuy nhi??n, v?? nh?? Vua ch??a bao gi??? ????? c???p ?????n d??? ??n n??y tr?????c c??ng ch??ng n??n ng?????i ta kh??ng r?? li???u ??ng c?? ???ng h??? hay kh??ng. N???u ??ng ???ng h???, gi???i tinh hoa c???m quy???n Th??i Lan c?? th??? c??n nh???c d??? ??n n??y m???t c??ch nghi??m t??c h??n.

Th??? hai l?? S??ng ki???n ??????V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng (BRI) c???a Trung Qu???c. Do ?????c ??i???m v??? tr?? ?????a l?? ??? trung t??m c???a ????ng Nam ?? l???c ?????a c???a Th??i Lan, Trung Qu???c coi Th??i Lan l?? ??i???m m???u ch???t trong d??? ??n c?? s??? h??? t???ng to??n c???u tr??? gi?? h??ng ngh??n t??? ???? la c???a m??nh. K??? t??? cu???c ?????o ch??nh n??m 2014, ch??nh quy???n c???a Th??? t?????ng Prayut Chan-ocha ???? ???ng h??? BRI m???nh m???. Tuy nhi??n, d??? ??n BRI n???i b???t nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c t???i Th??i Lan, m???ng l?????i ???????ng s???t Cao t???c (HSR), ???? nhi???u l???n b??? tr?? ho??n do nh???ng b???t ?????ng v??? v???n ????? t??i ch??nh, c??ng ngh??? v?? v???n h??nh. Trong n?????c, d??? ??n HSR ???? b??? ch??? tr??ch n???ng n??? b???i chi ph?? qu?? cao, thi???u minh b???ch v?? khi???n Th??i Lan tr??? n??n qu?? l??? thu???c v??o Trung Qu???c. Th??? nh??ng, c??? TCCEA v?? TCASD ?????u cho r???ng Trung Qu???c c?? th??? t??i tr??? cho k??nh ????o Kra nh?? m???t ph???n c???a m???t trong s??u h??nh lang kinh t??? ???????c BRI h???u thu???n, H??nh lang Kinh t??? B??n ?????o ????ng D????ng ??? Trung Qu???c.

Quan ??i???m c???a Trung Qu???c v??? k??nh Kra kh??ng r?? r??ng. Gi???a nh???ng n??m 2000, c??c nh?? ph??n t??ch chi???n l?????c c???a Trung Qu???c cho r???ng k??nh ????o s??? t??ng c?????ng an ninh n??ng l?????ng c???a n?????c n??y b???ng c??ch gi???m nhu c???u ?????i v???i t??u ch??? d???u treo c??? Trung Qu???c ??i qua Eo bi???n Malacca, n??i b??? ???ki???m so??t??? b???i Hoa K???. ???????c bi???t khi ???y, Trung Qu???c ???ng h??? ????? xu???t k??nh ????o c???a Chavalit nh??ng sau c??ng l???i th???y kh??ng m???n m?? v?? m???c ?????u t?? 20 t??? USD. M???t th???p ni??n sau, Trung Qu???c h??o h???ng h??n nhi???u trong vi???c t??i tr??? cho c??c d??? ??n c?? s??? h??? t???ng l???n nh?? m???t ph???n c???a BRI. H??n n???a, d?? c??i g???i l?? ???Th??? l?????ng nan Malacca??? lu??n b??? ph??ng ?????i, c??c nh?? ph??n t??ch chi???n l?????c ??? Trung Qu???c v???n xem k??nh ????o Kra l?? m???t c??ch h???u ??ch ????? ?????t ???????c ???s??? ph??n t??n r???i ro???. Tuy nhi??n, B???c Kinh ch??a bao gi??? ch??nh th???c qu???ng b?? k??nh ????o n??y nh?? m???t d??? ??n BRI. Th??? nh??ng, theo quan ??i???m c???a nhi???u nh?? ph??n t??ch Th??i Lan, B???c Kinh ??ang ??m th???m th??c ?????y c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c h??? tr??? cho k??nh ????o.

Nh??n t??? th??? ba c?? kh??? n??ng xoay chuy???n cu???c ch??i l?? Chi???n l?????c Qu???c gia hai m????i n??m c???a Th??i Lan. ???????c quy ?????nh b???i Hi???n ph??p 2017 v?? ban h??nh v??o th??ng 10/2018 b???i V??n ph??ng ???y ban Ph??t tri???n Kinh t??? v?? X?? h???i Qu???c gia (NESDB), Chi???n l?????c Qu???c gia ????a ra m???t t???m nh??n cho s??? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? ??? x?? h???i c???a Th??i Lan t??? n??m 2018 ?????n n??m 2037.

T???t c??? c??c ch??nh s??ch c???a ch??nh ph??? ph???i ph?? h???p v???i Chi???n l?????c Qu???c gia v?? Th?????ng vi???n gi??m s??t vi???c tu??n th??? ????. Chi???n l?????c Qu???c gia ????? xu???t Th??i Lan ph??t tri???n c?? s??? h??? t???ng ch???t l?????ng cao ????? k???t n???i ?????t n?????c v???i ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i. M???c d?? trong ???? kh??ng ????? c???p c??? th??? ?????n tuy???n ???????ng th???y qua Eo ?????t Kra song k??nh ????o c?? th??? ???????c x???p v??o di???n m???t d??? ??n k???t n???i h??? t???ng ch???t l?????ng cao. R???t kh??n ngoan, TCASD ???? ????? tr??nh ????? xu???t k??nh ????o Kra c???a m??nh l??n NESDB v??o th??ng 12/2017.

Ph???n ???ng c???a Th??? t?????ng Prayut

Th??? t?????ng Prayut ???? c?? ph???n ???ng th???n tr???ng tr?????c n??? l???c m???i ????? x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra: ??ng kh??ng t??n th??nh v?? c??ng kh??ng ph???n ?????i. Th??ng 2/2018, ph??t ng??n vi??n c???a ??ng cho bi???t d?? k??nh ????o kh??ng ph???i ??u ti??n c???a ch??nh ph???, song h??? ??ang xem x??t n??. Th??ng 10/2018, c?? th??ng tin cho r???ng Prayut ???? y??u c???u NESDB xem x??t ????? xu???t c???a TCASD.

C?? m???t s??? y???u t??? l?? gi???i cho s??? th???n tr???ng c???a Prayut.

?????u ti??n, ??ng kh??ng mu???n b??? xa l??nh b???i nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? k??nh ????o, bao g???m c??c th??nh vi??n thu???c c???ng ?????ng doanh nghi???p v?? c??c ?????ng nghi???p c?? c???a ??ng trong l???c l?????ng v?? trang, b???ng c??ch lo???i b??? n??.

Th??? hai, k??? t??? n??m 2014, Prayut d???n t??m tr?? v??o vi???c t???o ra m???t c???u tr??c ch??nh tr??? m???i, ?????m b???o s??? th???ng tr??? c???a qu??n ?????i v?? l???t ????? nh???ng ng?????i ch???ng l???i n??. Cu???c b???u c??? ng??y 24/03/2019 l?? ?????nh ??i???m c???a ti???n tr??nh n??y. Nh?? v???y, ??ng c?? kh?? ??t th???i gian ????? ????nh gi?? ??u ??i???m v?? nh?????c ??i???m c???a k??nh ????o.

Th??? ba, v?? quan tr???ng nh???t, ch??nh quy???n Prayut c???n xem x??t m???t lo???t c??c y???u t??? kinh t???, ?????i n???i v?? ?????a ch??nh tr??? ??an xen v?? ph???c t???p tr?????c khi th??ng qua m???t d??? ??n x??y d???ng l???n v?? g??y tranh c??i nh?? v???y. Nh?? m???i khi, v???n ????? ph???i suy t??nh nhi???u nh???t l?? kinh t???: k??nh ????o s??? ???????c t??i tr??? b???ng c??ch n??o v?? c?? kh??? thi v??? m???t kinh t??? hay kh??ng? S??? ph??? thu???c v??o Trung Qu???c ??? ngay c??? khi B???c Kinh s???n s??ng b???o tr??? cho d??? ??n tr??? gi?? 20-30 t??? USD ??? kh??? n??ng cao s??? kh??ng ???????c t??n th??nh trong n?????c n???u x??t nh???ng tranh c??i xung quanh d??? ??n HSR v?? vi???c Th??i Lan mua t??u ng???m c???a Trung Qu???c tr?????c ????. N???u mu???n ????? xu???t n??y nh???n ???????c s??? ???ng h??? to??n qu???c, n?? ph???i ???????c nh??n nh???n nh?? m???t s??ng ki???n ???thu???c s??? h???u ho??n to??n c???a Th??i Lan ch??? kh??ng ph???i c???a Trung Qu???c. M???t k??nh ????o Kra thu???c S??ng ki???n V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng c??ng s??? t???o ra ph???n ???ng ti??u c???c t??? ?????ng minh c???a Th??i Lan ??? Hoa K???, nh???t l?? khi ch??nh quy???n Trump t???ng ch??? tr??ch s??ng ki???n n??y l?? chi???n l?????c ???ngo???i giao b???y n??????.

C??c nh?? ph??n t??ch chi???n l?????c Th??i Lan lo ng???i r???ng k??nh ????o Kra c?? th??? tr??? th??nh ?????i t?????ng c???a s??? c???nh tranh Trung ??? M???, gi???ng nh?? c??ch d??? ??n n??y t???ng b??? k??o v??o cu???c c???nh tranh Ph??p ??? Anh v??o th??? k??? 19. ????ng ng???c nhi??n, m???t s??? ng?????i Th??i v???n b??y t??? lo l???ng r???ng k??nh ????o s??? chia c???t ?????t n?????c v?? k??ch ?????ng nh???ng ng?????i mi???n nam ly khai. Th???c t??? h??n, nh???ng ng?????i kh??c lo l???ng r???ng tuy???n ???????ng th???y d??i 100 km s??? d??? b??? t???n c??ng b???i nh???ng ng?????i H???i gi??o g???c Malay n???i lo???n. Bangkok c??ng ph???i c??n nh???c s??? nh???y c???m th????ng m???i c???a c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng, ?????c bi???t l?? Singapore v?? Malaysia, khi k??nh ????o c?? th??? chuy???n nh???ng tuy???n h??ng h???i c?? gi?? tr??? ra kh???i c???ng c???a h???. Ch??nh ph??? Th??i Lan c??ng c???n xem x??t t??c ?????ng m??i tr?????ng ?????n t??? vi???c x??y d???ng d??? ??n l???n n??y v?? c??ch m?? n?? s??? ???nh h?????ng ?????n ng??nh du l???ch ??ang mang l???i nhi???u l???i nhu???n c???a qu???c gia.

K???t lu???n

C??c l???p lu???n ???ng h??? v?? ph???n ?????i vi???c x??y d???ng k??nh ????o Kra c??? l???p ??i l???p l???i nh?? v???y. Nh???ng nh??n t??? ti???m n??ng xoay chuy???n cu???c ch??i ???? thay ?????i b???i c???nh cu???c tranh lu???n m???t c??ch kh??ng ????ng k???. N???u d??? ??n mu???n ???????c ti???n h??nh, n?? c???n nh???n ???????c s??? ?????ng t??nh c???a qu???c v????ng, v?? cho ?????n nay Vua Vajirasongkorn v???n kh??ng th??? hi???n b???t c??? ?????ng th??i ???ng h??? n??o. M???t tuy???n ???????ng th???y do Trung Qu???c t??i tr??? s??? g??y ra nhi???u tranh c??i trong n?????c v?? ???nh h?????ng ?????n quan h??? Th??i Lan ??? Hoa K???, v???n v???a kh??i ph???c sau cu???c ?????o ch??nh n??m 2014. M???t y???u t??? mang t??nh quy???t ?????nh kh??c l?? vi???c coi d??? ??n n??y nh?? m???t d??? ??n c?? s??? h??? t???ng then ch???t trong Chi???n l?????c Qu???c gia. Tuy nhi??n, khi ch??nh quy???n Prayut v???n c??n ??au ?????u v???i c??c kh?? kh??n ch??nh tr???, th??m h???t ng??n s??ch gia t??ng, v?? n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nh???ng kh?? kh??n t??? th????ng chi???n M???-Trung (???? l??m gi???m ????ng k??? nhu c???u v???n chuy???n ???????ng bi???n), th?? c??? ham mu???n ch??nh tr??? l???n ngu???n t??i ch??nh hi???n ?????u kh??ng ????? ????? bi???n gi???c m???ng k??nh ????o Kra c???a Th??i Lan tr??? th??nh hi???n th???c.