D???u ???n c???a Trump l??n ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i Hoa K???

Ngu???n: Joseph S. Nye, ???Trump???s Effect on US Foreign Policy???, Project Syndicate, 04/09/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

H??nh vi c???a T???ng th???ng M??? Donald Trump t???i cu???c h???p G7 g???n ????y ??? Biarritz ???? b??? ch??? tr??ch l?? b???t c???n v?? g??y r???i lo???n b???i nhi???u nh?? quan s??t. Nh???ng ng?????i kh??c l???p lu???n r???ng b??o ch?? v?? c??c h???c gi??? ch?? ?? qu?? m???c ?????n nh???ng tr?? h??? c?? nh??n, c??c d??ng tweet v?? c??c tr?? ch??i ch??nh tr??? c???a Trump. H??? l???p lu???n, v??? l??u d??i, c??c nh?? s??? h???c s??? ch??? coi nh???ng h??nh ?????ng ???? l?? nh???ng chuy???n v???t. C??u h???i l???n h??n l?? li???u t???ng th???ng Trump c?? ch???ng t??? m??nh l?? m???t b?????c ngo???t l???n trong ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a M???, hay c??ng ch??? l?? m???t s??? thay ?????i nh??? trong l???ch s??? m?? th??i.

Cu???c tranh lu???n hi???n t???i v??? Trump l??m d???y l??n m???t c??u h???i ???? c?? t??? l??u: Li???u c??c k???t qu??? l???ch s??? quan tr???ng l?? s???n ph???m t??? s??? l???a ch???n c???a con ng?????i hay ch??ng ch??? y???u xu???t ph??t t??? c??c y???u t??? c???u tr??c chi ph???i ???????c t???o ra b???i c??c l???c l?????ng kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? n???m ngo??i t???m ki???m so??t c???a ch??ng ta?

M???t s??? nh?? ph??n t??ch v?? d??ng ch???y l???ch s??? v???i m???t d??ng s??ng ??o ???t, ???????c ?????nh h??nh b???i kh?? h???u, l?????ng m??a, ?????a ch???t v?? ?????a h??nh, ch??? kh??ng ph???i b???i b???t c??? th??? g?? m?? n?? mang theo. Nh??ng ngay c??? khi ??i???u n??y l?? s??? th???t, con ng?????i kh??ng ????n gi???n gi???ng nh?? nh???ng con ki???n ??????b??m v??o m???t kh??c g??? b??? cu???n theo d??ng ch???y. H??? gi???ng nh?? nh???ng ng?????i ch??o thuy???n tr??n m???t n?????c tr???ng x??a c??? g???ng l??o l??i v?? ch???ng ????? nh???ng t???ng ????, ????i khi b??? l???t v?? ????i khi th??nh c??ng trong vi???c ch??o l??i con thuy???n ?????n m???t ????ch mong mu???n.

Hi???u ???????c c??c l???a ch???n v?? th???t b???i c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o trong ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i M??? trong th??? k??? v???a qua c?? th??? gi??p ch??ng ta c?? c?? s??? t???t h??n ????? ?????i ph?? v???i nh???ng c??u h???i m?? ch??ng ta g???p ph???i ng??y nay v??? nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng c???a Trump. C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? m???i th???i ?????i ?????u ngh?? r???ng h??? ??ang ?????i ph?? v???i nh???ng l???c l?????ng thay ?????i v?? ti???n kho??ng h???u, nh??ng b???n ch???t con ng?????i v???n kh??ng ?????i. L???a ch???n c?? th??? quan tr???ng; vi???c kh??ng h??nh ?????ng c??ng c?? th??? c?? nh???ng t??c ?????ng l???n t????ng t??? nh?? khi h??nh ?????ng. Vi???c c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o M??? kh??ng c?? h??nh ?????ng g?? trong nh???ng n??m 1930 ???? g??p ph???n g??y ra th???m h???a tr???n gian (Th??? chi???n II); c??ng gi???ng nh?? vi???c c??c t???ng th???ng M??? ???? t??? ch???i s??? d???ng v?? kh?? h???t nh??n khi Hoa K??? v???n c??n n???m ?????c quy???n v??? ch??ng.

V???y nh???ng l???a ch???n quan tr???ng nh?? v???y ???????c ?????nh h??nh b???i t??nh hu???ng hay con ng?????i? Nh??n l???i m???t th??? k??? tr?????c, Woodrow Wilson ???? ph?? v??? truy???n th???ng v?? g???i c??c l???c l?????ng Hoa K??? ?????n chi???n ?????u ??? ch??u ??u, nh??ng ??i???u ???? c??ng c?? th??? ???? x???y ra d?????i th???i m???t nh?? l??nh ?????o kh??c (gi??? s??? nh?? Theodore Roosevelt). S??? kh??c bi???t l???n trong tr?????ng h???p Wilson n???m ??? gi???ng ??i???u ?????o ?????c trong qu?? tr??nh bi???n minh c???a ??ng, v?? s??? kh??ng kh??ng b?????ng b???nh, ph???n t??c d???ng, c???a ??ng v??? vi???c Hoa K??? ph???i tham gia ?????y ????? v??o H???i Qu???c Li??n. M???t s??? ng?????i ????? l???i ch??? ngh??a ?????o ?????c c???a Wilson cho vi???c M??? quay l???i v???i ch??? ngh??a bi???t l???p trong nh???ng n??m 1930.

Franklin D. Roosevelt ???? kh??ng th??? ????a Hoa K??? tham gia Th??? chi???n II cho ?????n khi tr???n Tr??n Ch??u C???ng n??? ra, v?? ??i???u ???? c??ng c?? th??? ???? x???y ra ngay c??? d?????i th???i m???t t???ng th???ng theo ch??nh s??ch bi???t l???p, b???o th???. Tuy nhi??n, vi???c Roosevelt ????ng khung m???i ??e d???a do Hitler g??y ra, c??ng nh?? s??? chu???n b??? c???a ??ng nh???m ?????i m???t v???i m???i ??e d???a ????, ????ng vai tr?? r???t quan tr???ng trong s??? tham gia c???a M??? v??o cu???c chi???n ??? ch??u ??u.

Sau Th??? chi???n II, c???u tr??c l?????ng c???c c???a hai si??u c?????ng ?????t ra khu??n kh??? cho Chi???n tranh L???nh. Nh??ng phong c??ch v?? th???i ??i???m c???a c??c ph???n ???ng c???a M??? c?? th??? ???? kh??c n???u Henry Wallace (ng?????i m?? Roosevelt ???? lo???i kh???i ch???c ph?? t???ng th???ng n??m 1944), thay v?? Harry Truman, tr??? th??nh t???ng th???ng M???. Sau cu???c b???u c??? n??m 1952, m???t ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a bi???t l???p nh?? Robert Taft ho???c m???t t???ng th???ng quy???t ??o??n nh?? Douglas MacArthur c?? th??? ???? ph?? v??? s??? c???ng c??? t????ng ?????i su??n s??? c???a chi???n l?????c ng??n ch???n c???a Truman, m???t ch??nh s??ch ???????c ng?????i k??? nhi???m c???a ??ng, Dwight D. Eisenhower, ti???p t???c duy tr??.

John F. Kennedy c?? vai tr?? r???t quan tr???ng trong vi???c ng??n ch???n chi???n tranh h???t nh??n trong cu???c Kh???ng ho???ng t??n l???a Cuba, v?? sau ???? k?? th???a thu???n ki???m so??t v?? kh?? h???t nh??n ?????u ti??n. Nh??ng ??ng v?? Lyndon B. Johnson ???? khi???n M??? sa l???y v??o nh???ng th???t b???i kh??ng c???n thi???t v?? t???n k??m trong Chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam. V??o cu???i th??? k???, c??c l???c l?????ng c???u tr??c ???? g??y ra s??? suy y???u c???a Li??n X?? v?? Mikhail Gorbachev ???? ?????y nhanh s???p ????? c???a n?????c n??y. Nh??ng k??? n??ng ????m ph??n v?? ch????ng tr??nh x??y d???ng qu???c ph??ng c???a Ronald Reagan, c??ng nh?? k??? n??ng c???a George H.W. Bush v??? qu???n l?? kh???ng ho???ng, c??ng ????ng m???t vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong vi???c mang l???i k???t th??c h??a b??nh cho Chi???n tranh L???nh.

N??i c??ch kh??c, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o v?? k??? n??ng c???a h??? c?? vai tr?? quan tr???ng. Theo m???t ngh??a n??o ????, ????y l?? tin x???u, b???i v?? ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? c??c h??nh vi c???a Trump kh?? c?? th??? d??? d??ng b??? b??? qua. Quan tr???ng h??n c??c tweet c???a Trump l?? vi???c ??ng ta l??m suy y???u c??c th??? ch???, li??n minh c??ng nh?? s??? h???p d???n t??? s???c m???nh m???m c???a M???, ??i???u m?? c??c cu???c th??m d?? cho th???y ???? suy gi???m d?????i th???i Trump. ??ng l?? t???ng th???ng ?????u ti??n sau 70 n??m ???? quay l??ng l???i v???i tr???t t??? qu???c t??? t??? do m?? M??? t???o ra sau Th??? chi???n II. T?????ng James Mattis, ng?????i ???? t??? ch???c sau khi gi??? c????ng v??? b??? tr?????ng qu???c ph??ng ?????u ti??n c???a Trump, g???n ????y ???? than th??? v??? vi???c t???ng th???ng l?? l?? c??c li??n minh.

C??c t???ng th???ng c???n s??? d???ng c??? s???c m???nh c???ng v?? m???m, k???t h???p ch??ng theo nh???ng c??ch b??? sung ch??? kh??ng ph???i lo???i b??? l???n nhau. K??? n??ng ch??nh tr??? th???c d???ng v?? t??? ch???c l?? r???t c???n thi???t, nh??ng quan tr???ng kh??ng k??m l?? tr?? tu??? c???m x??c, th??? t???o ra c??c k??? n??ng t??? nh???n th???c v?? t??? ki???m so??t, c??ng nh?? s??? nh???y c???m t??nh hu???ng, th??? cho ph??p c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o hi???u ???????c m??i tr?????ng ??ang chuy???n bi???n, t???n d???ng c??c xu h?????ng v?? ??p d???ng c??c k??? n??ng kh??c c???a m??nh cho ph?? h???p. Tr?? th??ng minh c???m x??c v?? s??? nh???y c???m t??nh hu???ng kh??ng ph???i l?? c??c th??? m???nh c???a Trump.

Nh?? l?? lu???n v??? k??? n??ng l??nh ?????o Gautam Mukunda ???? ch??? ra r???ng c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ???????c s??ng l???c c???n th???n th??ng qua c??c qu?? tr??nh ch??nh tr??? v???ng ch???c c?? xu h?????ng c?? th??? d??? ??o??n ???????c. George H.W. Bush l?? m???t v?? d??? t???t. Nh???ng ng?????i kh??c kh??ng ???????c s??ng l???c, v?? c??ch h??? th???c hi???n quy???n l???c l?? r???t kh??c nhau. Abraham Lincoln l?? m???t ???ng c??? vi??n t????ng ?????i ch??a ???????c s??ng l???c nh??ng l?? m???t trong nh???ng t???ng th???ng t???t nh???t c???a M???. Trump, ng?????i ch??a bao gi??? n???m c????ng v??? n??o trong ch??nh quy???n tr?????c khi gi??nh ch???c t???ng th???ng v?? tham gia ch??nh tr??? v???i v???n li???ng trong ng??nh truy???n h??nh th???c t??? v?? b???t ?????ng s???n ??? New York, ???? ch???ng t??? l?? c?? k??? n??ng phi th?????ng trong vi???c l??m ch??? ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng hi???n ?????i, th??ch th???c c??c nh???n th???c th??ng th?????ng v?? t???o ra nh???ng thay ?????i s??ng t???o ?????y r???i lo???n. Trong khi m???t s??? ng?????i tin r???ng ??i???u n??y c?? th??? t???o ra k???t qu??? t??ch c???c, v?? d??? nh?? v???i Trung Qu???c, th?? nh???ng ng?????i kh??c v???n c??n ho??i nghi.

Vai tr?? c???a Trump trong l???ch s??? c?? th??? ph??? thu???c v??o vi???c ??ng c?? t??i ?????c c??? hay kh??ng. Th??? ch???, ni???m tin v?? s???c m???nh m???m c?? nhi???u kh??? n??ng b??? x??i m??n n???u ??ng ta ??? l???i Nh?? Tr???ng trong t??m n??m ch??? kh??ng ph???i b???n n??m. Nh??ng trong c??? hai tr?????ng h???p, ng?????i k??? nhi???m ??ng s??? ?????i ?????u v???i m???t th??? gi???i ???? thay ?????i, m???t ph???n v?? nh???ng t??c ?????ng t??? c??c ch??nh s??ch c???a Trump, m???t ph???n v?? c??c thay ?????i l???n trong c???u tr??c quy???n l???c ch??nh tr??? th??? gi???i, chuy???n t??? T??y sang ????ng (s??? tr???i d???y c???a Ch??u ??) v?? t??? ch??nh ph??? sang c??c t??c nh??n phi nh?? n?????c (???????c t??ng th??m s???c m???nh b???i tr?? tu??? nh??n t???o v?? m???ng internet). Nh?? Karl Marx ???? nh??n nh???n, ch??ng ta l??m n??n l???ch s???, nh??ng kh??ng ph???i theo nh???ng ??i???u ki???n do ch??nh ch??ng ta l???a ch???n. Ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a M??? sau Trump v???n c??n l?? m???t c??u h???i m???.

Joseph S. Nye, nguy??n Tr??? l?? B??? tr?????ng Qu???c ph??ng v?? Ch??? t???ch H???i ?????ng T??nh b??o Qu???c gia M???, hi???n l?? Gi??o s?? ?????i h???c Havard. ??ng l?? t??c gi??? c???a cu???n Is the American Century Over?
 

26/11/1941: ?????c nhi???m Nh???t l??n ????????ng ??????n Tr??n Ch??u C???ng

Ngu???n: Japanese task force leaves for Pearl Harbor, History.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1941, ???? ?????c Chuichi Nagumo ???? d???n ?????u H???m ?????i Kh??ng qu??n Nh???t B???n s??? 1, m???t nh??m t??u s??n bay t???n c??ng, h?????ng v??? Tr??n Ch??u C???ng, c??ng v???i ?? ?????nh r???ng, ???n???u ????m ph??n v???i M??? th??nh c??ng, h???m ?????i s??? ngay l???p t???c r??t qu??n tr??? v???.???

????m ph??n ???? di???n ra su???t nhi???u th??ng. Ng?????i Nh???t mu???n ch???m d???t c??c l???nh c???m v???n kinh t??? c???a M???. Ng?????i M??? mu???n Nh???t r??t kh???i Trung Qu???c v?? ????ng Nam ?? ??? v?? t??? b??? Hi???p ?????c Tam c?????ng (Tripartite ???Axis??? Pact) v???i ?????c v?? ?? nh?? l?? ??i???u ki???n c???n tr?????c khi c???m v???n c?? th??? ???????c d??? b???. Kh??ng b??n n??o ch???u nh?????ng b???.

T???ng th???ng Roosevelt v?? Ngo???i tr?????ng Cordell Hull ???? d??? ??o??n Nh???t s??? t???n c??ng tr??? ????a ??? h??? ch??? kh??ng bi???t l?? ??? ????u. Philippines, ?????o Wake, Midway ??? t???t c??? ?????u l?? nh???ng kh??? n??ng. C??c b??o c??o t??nh b??o c???a M??? ???? ch??? ra r???ng H???m ?????i Nh???t B???n ???? di chuy???n ra kh???i Formosa (????i Loan), v?? d?????ng nh?? ??ang h?????ng v??? b??n ?????o ????ng D????ng. K???t qu??? c???a ???ni???m tin sai l???m??? n??y l?? T???ng th???ng Roosevelt ???? y??u c???u h???y b??? m???t c??? ch??? h??a gi???i, ???? l?? ti???p t???c cung c???p d???u h??ng th??ng cho nhu c???u d??n s??? c???a Nh???t B???n. Hull c??ng b??c b??? ???K??? ho???ch B??? c???a Tokyo, ???? l?? t???m xu???ng thang kh???ng ho???ng v?? n???i l???ng c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t m?? kh??ng c?? b???t k??? nh?????ng b??? n??o t??? ph??a Nh???t. Th??? t?????ng Tojo coi ????y l?? m???t t???i h???u th??, v?? ??t nhi???u ???? t??? b??? c??c k??nh ngo???i giao nh?? l?? ph????ng ti???n gi???i quy???t b??? t???c.

Nagumo kh??ng c?? kinh nghi???m v??? kh??ng qu??n h??ng h???i; ??ng ch??a bao gi??? ch??? huy m???t ?????i t??u s??n bay n??o trong cu???c ?????i m??nh. Vai tr?? n??y l?? ph???n th?????ng cho m???t ?????i c???ng hi???n trung th??nh. Nagumo, d?? l?? ng?????i ????n ??ng c???a h??nh ?????ng, nh??ng v???n kh??ng th??ch nh???ng r???i ro kh??ng c???n thi???t ??? m?? m???t r???i ro nh?? v???y theo ??ng l?? vi???c t???n c??ng v??o c??n c??? h???i qu??n M??? t???i Tr??n Ch??u C???ng.

Tuy nhi??n, T???ng tham m??u tr?????ng, ???? ?????c Isoruku Yamamoto, l???i ngh?? kh??c. Trong khi c??ng ph???n ?????i chi???n tranh v???i M???, ??ng tin r???ng hy v???ng duy nh???t cho chi???n th???ng c???a Nh???t B???n l?? m???t cu???c t???n c??ng b???t ng??? nhanh ch??ng, th??ng qua chi???n tranh t??u s??n bay, ch???ng l???i H???m ?????i M???. V??? ph???n B??? Chi???n tranh c???a Roosevelt, n???u chi???n tranh l?? kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i, th?? h??? mong r???ng ???Ng?????i Nh???t s??? l?? b??n c??ng khai t???n c??ng tr?????c.???
 

07/12/1941: Nh???t t???n c??ng Tr??n Ch??u C???ng

Ngu???n: Pearl Harbor bombed, History.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o nga??y na??y n??m 1941, lu??c 7 gi???? 55 phu??t s??ng, theo gi???? Hawaii, m???t m??y bay n??m bom c???a Nh???t B???n v????i bi????u t??????ng H??c Nh???t k??? ??a?? xu???t hi???n tr??n b????u tr????i ?????o Oahu, theo sau la?? 360 m??y bay chi???n ?????u cu??ng c???a Nh???t. T????t ca?? t???n c??ng d??? d???i va??o c??n c??? h???i qu??n M??? t???i Tr??n Ch??u C???ng. Cu???c t???n c??ng b???t ng??? na??y gia??ng m???t ????n nghi??m tr???ng l??n H???m ?????i Th??i B??nh D????ng cu??a My?? v?? bu????c M??? pha??i chi??nh th????c tham gia Th??? chi???n II.

Sau th????t ba??i trong ????m ph??n ngo???i giao v???i Nh???t Ba??n, T???ng th???ng Franklin D. Roosevelt v?? c??c c??? v???n c???a ??ng bi???t r???ng se?? co?? kha?? n??ng ng??????i Nh???t t????n c??ng, nh??ng ch????ng co?? bi????n pha??p na??o ????????c th????c hi????n ????? t??ng c?????ng an ninh t???i c??n c??? h???i qu??n quan tr???ng ???? Tr??n Ch??u C???ng.

Khi ??o?? l?? s??ng Ch??? nh???t, v?? nhi???u qu??n nh??n ???? ???????c phe??p ??i tham d??? c??c nghi l??? t??n gi??o. Lu??c 7 gi???? 02 phu??t, hai radar ??a?? ph??t hi???n nhi????u ??oa??n m??y bay l????n ??ang bay t????i t??? ph??a B???c. Tuy nhi??n, v??o th???i ??i???m ????, c??n c???? cu??ng ??ang d???? ki????n ??o??n ??oa??n ma??y bay B-17 t???? My?? sang n??n ho?? ??a?? kh??ng b??o ?????ng. Do ????, cu???c t???n c??ng cu??a ng??????i Nh???t tr???? tha??nh m???t tha??m ho??a b???t ng??? ??????i v????i c??n c??? h???i qu??n.

Ph???n l???n H???m ?????i Th??i B??nh D????ng tr???? n??n b??? v?? hi???u: 5 trong s???? 8 thi???t gi??p h???m, 3 t??u khu tr???c, v?? 7 t??u kh??c ??a?? b??? ch??m ho???c b??? h?? h???ng, v?? h??n 200 m??y bay ???? b??? ph?? h???y. T???ng c???ng c?? 2.400 ng?????i M??? ???? thi???t m???ng v?? 1.200 ng?????i b??? th????ng, r????t nhi???u trong s???? ho?? hy sinh khi d??ng c???m c??? g???ng ?????y l??i cu???c t???n c??ng.

V???? phi??a Nh???t B???n, t???n th???t g????m 30 m??y bay, 5 ta??u ng????m nho?? v?? ch??a t???i 100 ng?????i thi????t ma??ng. May m???n thay cho ng??????i My??, c??? ba ta??u s??n bay cu??a H???m ?????i Th??i B??nh D????ng ???? ra bi???n ?????? hu????n luy????n. Chi??nh nh???ng t??u s??n bay kh???ng l??? na??y s??? tr??? th?? ng??????i Nh???t chi?? s??u th??ng sau ????, trong Tr???n Midway ??? m???t chi???n th???ng ngo???n m???c, ?????o ng?????c ti??nh th???? tr??????c H???i qu??n Nh???t v????n di?? tr??????c ??o?? la?? b???t kh??? chi???n b???i.

M???t ng??y sau khi Tr??n Ch??u C???ng b??? ????nh bom, T???ng th???ng Roosevelt ??a?? xu???t hi???n tr?????c m???t phi??n h???p chung c???a Qu???c H???i v?? tuy??n b???: ???H??m qua, 07/12/1941, la?? m????t nga??y ?? nh???c ??? n??????c My?? ??a?? pha??i h????ng chi??u ??????t t????n c??ng b???t ng??? v?? c??? ?? c???a h???i qu??n v?? kh??ng qu??n ????? qu???c Nh???t.??? Sau m???t b??i ph??t bi???u ng???n g???n v?? m???nh m???, ??ng y??u c???u Qu???c H???i th??ng qua Ngh??? quy???t Tuy??n b???? T??nh tr???ng Chi???n tranh gi???a My?? v?? Nh???t.

Th?????ng vi???n b??? phi???u v???i t??? l??? 82 ??? 0 ???ng h??? cu???c chi???n ch???ng l???i Nh???t B???n, v?? H??? vi???n th??ng qua Ngh??? quy???t v???i s??? phi???u 388 ??? 1. Ng?????i b???t ?????ng y?? ki????n duy nh???t l?? Ha?? nghi?? si?? Jeannette Rankin c???a bang Montana, m???t ng??????i chu?? tr????ng h??a b??nh va?? c??ng ???? t????ng bo?? phi????u ch????ng la??i vi????c My?? tham gia Th???? chi????n I. Ba ng??y sau, ?????c v?? ?? tuy??n chi???n v???i My??, v?? ch??nh ph??? My?? cu??ng co?? tuy??n b???? t????ng t????.

My?? ??a?? ??o??ng go??p va??o chi????n th????ng cu??a phe ??????ng minh trong su????t 4 n??m tham chi????n va?? 400.000 ng??????i My?? ???? hi sinh m???ng s???ng c???a m??nh.