Ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n s???p ????? n??m 1989: M???t chi???n th???ng kh??ng tr???n v???n

Ngu???n: Javier Solana, ???The Partial Triumph of 1989???, Project Syndicate, 22/10/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

Ng??y 9 th??ng 11 n??m 1989 l?? m???t ng??y m?? th??? h??? ch??ng t??i s??? kh??ng bao gi??? qu??n, m???t ng??y s??? m??i m??i ???????c ghi v??o l???ch s??? lo??i ng?????i. V??o ng??y ???? g???n 30 n??m tr?????c, B???c t?????ng Berlin s???p ?????. S??? tan r?? c???a kh???i X??-vi???t cho th???y ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ???? tr??? th??nh th???t b???i ?? th???c h??? l???n th??? hai c???a th??? k??? 20, sau s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??? ngh??a ph??t x??t m???y th???p ni??n tr?????c ????. Ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n t??? do v?? l???c l?????ng ???ng h??? ch??nh c???a n??, Hoa K???, ???? gi??nh v??? th??? t???i cao, d?????ng nh?? s??? ???????c h?????ng m???t n???n b?? quy???n l??u d??i, kh??ng b??? c???n tr???.

Nhi???u qu???c gia ph??t tri???n m???nh m??? trong m??i tr?????ng m???i ????. Ch???ng h???n, Ba Lan ???? thi???t l???p m???t ch??nh ph??? phi c???ng s???n ngay tr?????c khi B???c t?????ng Berlin s???p ?????, v?? sau khi v?????t qua m???t s??? v???n ????? qu?? ????? ban ?????u, ???? su??n s??? tr??? th??nh th??nh vi??n c???a NATO v?? Li??n minh ch??u ??u. L???n cu???i c??ng n???n kinh t??? Ba Lan tr???i qua m???t ?????t suy  tho??i l?? v??o n??m 1991. V?? v??o n??m 2009, khi GDP c???a c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n kh??c c???a EU ?????u gi???m, GDP c???a Ba Lan ???? t??ng g???n 3%.

Tuy nhi??n, ng??y nay ch??ng ta bi???t r???ng n??m 1989 ????nh d???u kh??ng ph???i s??? c??o chung c???a l???ch s???, m?? ch??? l?? s??? k???t th??c m???t ch????ng trong l???ch s??? m?? th??i. N???n d??n ch??? t??? do ph????ng T??y, th??? m?? Francis Fukuyama d??? ??o??n s??? c?? v??? tr?? t???i cao v??nh c???u sau n??m 1989, gi??? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i m???t th??ch th???c ng??y c??ng nghi??m tr???ng t??? c??c l???c l?????ng phi t??? do.

Th???i k??? th???ng tr??? c???a n?????c M??? c??ng h??a ra ng???n ng???i. Ng??y 11 th??ng 9 n??m 2001, c??c cu???c t???n c??ng kh???ng b??? ch???ng l???i Hoa K??? cho th???y m???t c?????ng qu???c c?? th??? d??? b??? t???n th????ng nh?? th??? n??o tr?????c c??c ch??? th??? phi nh?? n?????c m???i n???i. Ngo??i ra, vi???c Trung Qu???c gia nh???p T??? ch???c Th????ng m???i Th??? gi???i c??ng n??m ???? ???? t???o th??m ?????ng l???c cho Trung Qu???c tr???i d???y ngo???n m???c. B?? quy???n c???a M??? s???p ?????, v?? th??? gi???i d???n d???n quen v???i tr???t t??? ??a c???c.

S??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ???? ph?? v??? nhi???u gi??? ?????nh tr?????c ????y. Tr??? l???i th??ng 11 n??m 1989, ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c (??CSTQ) d?????ng nh?? c???c k??? d??? b??? t???n th????ng. M??i nh???n kh??c c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ??? Li??n X?? ??? ??ang ph???i ?????i m???t v???i m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng ng??y c??ng r?? r???t, trong khi Trung Qu???c v???n ??ang li???m l??p v???t th????ng c???a m??nh sau cu???c bi???u t??nh t???i Qu???ng tr?????ng Thi??n An M??n.

??CSTQ ???? ph???n ???ng v???i hai s??? ki???n n??y b???ng c??ch ????ng t???t c??? c??c c??nh c???a ?????i v???i t??? do h??a ch??nh tr???. Cu???i c??ng, tr??i v???i nhi???u d??? ??o??n, s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X?? ???? kh??ng d???n ?????n s??? s???p ????? c???a ??CSTQ. S??? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c c??ng kh??ng l??m suy y???u m?? h??nh chuy??n ch??? c???a h???, ??t nh???t l?? cho ?????n nay. Ng?????c l???i, ??CSTQ ??ang c???ng c??? s??? c???m quy???n c???a m??nh d?????i s??? l??nh ?????o c???a Ch??? t???ch T???p C???n B??nh, v?? m???t s??? ch??nh ph??? th???m ch?? ???? b???t ?????u coi m?? h??nh ph??t tri???n ?????c ??o??n c???a Trung Qu???c nh?? m???t ngu???n c???m h???ng.

Nh??ng lu???n ??i???u c???a ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c v??? m?? h??nh thay th??? c?? m???t s??? ??i???m kh??ng ch??nh x??c. C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa g???n ????y ???? k??? ni???m 70 n??m ng??y th??nh l???p, ngh??a l?? ???? t???n t???i l??u h??n Li??n X??. Nh??ng nh?? n?????c Trung Qu???c c???ng s???n kh??ng ph???i 70 tu???i: b???t ch???p quan ??i???m ch??nh th???c, s??? c???t c??nh kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c ch??? y???u l?? nh??? c??c c???i c??ch t??? do h??a n??m 1978 c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, v?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????t n?????c kh??ng c??n nu??i d?????ng c??c tham v???ng c???ng s???n. Nh?? nh?? kinh t??? h???c Branko Milanovi?? l???p lu???n trong cu???n s??ch m???i Capitalism, Alone, m?? h??nh Trung Qu???c ng??y nay ?????i di???n cho m???t lo???i ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n kh??c, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t h??? th???ng kinh t??? ho??n to??n kh??c v???i ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n. Theo ngh??a n??y, d??? ??o??n c???a Fukuyama v???n ch??a ???????c ch???ng minh l?? sai, v?? ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n v???n kh??ng c?? ?????i th??? tr??n to??n th??? gi???i.

Vi???c m???t Trung Qu???c mang danh ngh??a c???ng s???n n???m trong s??? nh???ng ng?????i b???o v??? trung th??nh nh???t c???a to??n c???u h??a l?? m???t trong nh???ng ngh???ch l?? l???n c???a th???i ?????i ch??ng ta. Tr??n th???c t???, s??? c???i m??? c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i th??? gi???i b??n ngo??i v???n c??n t????ng ?????i h???n ch???. Nh??ng ch??nh ph??? c???a n?? d?? sao c??ng ?????m nh???n vai tr?? l??nh ?????o trong m???t s??? di???n ????n kinh t??? nh???t ?????nh, ch??? y???u l?? v?? nh???ng qu???c gia kh??c kh??ng mu???n ????ng vai tr?? ????. Hai c?????ng qu???c tr?????c ????y ???? ????ng g??p nhi???u nh???t ????? th??c ?????y th????ng m???i t??? do ??? Hoa K??? v?? V????ng qu???c Anh ??? hi???n ??ang r??t lui ho??n to??n. Ng??y nay, to??n c???u h??a ph??? bi???n ??? ch??u ?? h??n l?? ??? ph????ng T??y.

Nhi???u ng?????i ??? M??? v?? ch??u ??u tin r???ng nh???ng ng?????i ???????c coi l?? nh???ng k??? thua cu???c trong to??n c???u h??a ???? gi??p ????a nh???ng nh??n v???t phi t??? do nh?? T???ng th???ng M??? Donald Trump l??n n???m quy???n. Nh??ng kinh t??? ch??? gi??p gi???i th??ch m???t ph???n cho xu h?????ng n??y.

H??y xem x??t l???i tr?????ng h???p Ba Lan. M???c d?? l?? v?? d??? ti??u bi???u cho s??? chuy???n ?????i th??nh c??ng t??? ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i sang ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n t??? do, v?? d?? ???? v?????t qua cu???c ?????i suy tho??i, ?????t n?????c n??y ???? ch???p nh???n ch??? ngh??a phi t??? do d?????i h??nh th???c ?????ng Lu???t ph??p v?? C??ng l?? (PiS), ?????ng g???n ????y ???? gi??nh chi???n th???ng trong cu???c b???u c??? qu???c h???i th??? hai li??n ti???p. M???c d?? PiS ???? t???n d???ng s??? b???t m??n v??? kinh t??? c???a m???t b??? ph???n d??n ch??ng, nh??ng n?? c??ng ???? khai th??c m???i lo l???ng s??u r???ng h??n v??? b???n s???c d??n t???c Ba Lan. ??i???u quan tr???ng l?? ph???i nh??? l???i m???c ????? quy???n t??? tr??? c???a Ba Lan ???? b??? h???n ch??? nh?? th??? n??o trong th??? k??? tr?????c, m???t c??ch kh??ng t??? nguy???n (b???i s??? chi???m ????ng ho???c ki???m so??t c???a c??c c?????ng qu???c b??n ngo??i) ho???c t??? nguy???n (b???ng c??ch gia nh???p Li??n minh Ch??u ??u). L???ch s??? n??y ???? khi???n nhi???u ng?????i Ba Lan m???t l??ng tin v??o l?? t?????ng qu???c t??? v?? to??n c???u.

Do ????, ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n v?? ch??? ngh??a phi t??? do kh??ng ph???i ??ang ch???ng l???i nhau m?? ??ang c??ng ti???n l??n v?? tr??? n??n ng??y c??ng v???ng ch???c tr??n to??n c???u. V?? s??? ti???n b??? c???a c??ng ngh??? th??ng tin c?? th??? ?????ng th???i c???ng c??? c??? hai xu h?????ng.

K??? t??? khi ph??t minh ra m???ng to??n c???u (c??ng v??o n??m 1989), t??c ?????ng c???a n?? ???? tr??? n??n m?? h??? h??n so v???i mong ?????i. Theo m???t ngh??a n??o ????, Internet ???? gi??p k???t n???i m???i ng?????i, nh??ng n?? c??ng ???? chia x?? h???i th??nh nh???ng nh??m ng?????i ch??? mu???n nghe ng?????i kh??c n??i c??ng m???t quan ??i???m. H??n n???a, m???t s??? ch??nh ph??? ??ang kh??m ph?? ti???m n??ng c???a Internet ??? c??ng c??c t??i nguy??n li??n quan nh?? d??? li???u l???n ??? l??m c??ng c??? ki???m so??t x?? h???i. M???t v?? d??? r?? r??ng l?? ??CSTQ, v???n mu???n tr??nh t???t c??? s??? gi??n ??o???n ti???m t??ng n??o c?? th??? x???y ra ?????i v???i c??c k??? ho???ch ?????t ???????c ???s??? ph??t tri???n ?????y ???????? v??o n??m 2049, n??m ????nh d???u c???t m???c m???t tr??m n??m t???n t???i c???a nh?? n?????c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa.

Trong cu???n s??ch 21 Lessons for the 21st Century (21 b??i h???c cho th??? k??? 21), Yuval Noah Harari vi???t r???ng, ???N???u ai ???? m?? t??? cho b???n th??? gi???i gi???a th??? k??? 21 v?? n?? nghe gi???ng nh?? chuy???n khoa h???c vi???n t?????ng, th?? c?? l??? h??? sai???. Nh??ng ??ng c??ng b??? sung r???ng ???n???u ai ???? m?? t??? cho b???n th??? gi???i gi???a th??? k??? 21 v?? n?? nghe kh??ng gi???ng nh?? khoa h???c vi???n t?????ng ??? th?? h??? ch???c ch???n sai???. N??i c??ch kh??c, ??i???u ch???c ch???n duy nh???t l?? s??? thay ?????i kh??ng l?????ng tr?????c ???????c.

B???i v?? d??? ??o??n c???a ch??ng ta h???u h???t ?????u kh??ng ch??nh x??c, t???t nh???t l?? n??n tr??nh c??? ch??? ngh??a ?????nh m???nh l???n s??? l???c quan qu?? m???c khi nh??n v??? t????ng lai. Ba m????i n??m k??? t??? b??y gi???, ch??ng ta c?? th??? s???ng trong m???t th??? gi???i n??i c??c th??? l???c phi t??? do li??n t???c va ch???m. Ho???c ???? c?? th??? l?? m???t th??? gi???i n??i c??c gi?? tr??? nh?? d??n ch??? v?? ch??? ngh??a ??a ph????ng ???? quay tr??? l???i. B??i h???c t??? n??m 1989 l?? ch??ng ta n??n khi??m t???n. Nh??ng ??i???u ???? kh??ng c?? ngh??a l?? ch??ng ta n??n th??? ?????ng: nh???ng g?? ch??ng ta ch???n l??m h??m nay ch???c ch???n s??? t??c ?????ng t???i th??? gi???i ng??y mai.

Javier Solana nguy??n la?? cao u??y v??? ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i v?? an ninh c???a EU, t???ng th?? k?? NATO v?? B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao T??y Ban Nha.
Theo Ncqt