25/08/1835: Xu???t b???n lo???t b??i ???Tr?? l???a M???t tr??ng???

Chủ nhật - 25/08/2019 06:39
???????c bi???t ?????n v???i t??n g???i chung l?? The Great Moon Hoax (Tr?? l???a M???t Tr??ng), lo???t b??i n??y ???????c gi???i thi???u l?? in l???i t??? T???p ch?? Khoa h???c Edinburgh. ???T??c gi?????? ???????c ????? l?? Ti???n s?? Andrew Grant, ?????ng nghi???p c???a Sir John Herschel, m???t nh?? thi??n v??n h???c n???i ti???ng th???i ????. Herschel qu??? th???c ???? t???i
25/08/1835: Xu???t b???n lo???t b??i ???Tr?? l???a M???t tr??ng???

25/08/1835: Xu???t b???n lo???t b??i ???Tr?? l???a M???t tr??ng???

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Ngu???n: The Great Moon Hoax, History.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1835, b??i ?????u ti??n trong lo???t s??u b??i vi???t c??ng b??? vi???c ph??t hi???n ra s??? s???ng tr??n M???t Tr??ng ???? ???????c ????ng tr??n t??? New York Sun.

???????c bi???t ?????n v???i t??n g???i chung l?? The Great Moon Hoax (Tr?? l???a M???t Tr??ng), lo???t b??i n??y ???????c gi???i thi???u l?? in l???i t??? T???p ch?? Khoa h???c Edinburgh. ???T??c gi?????? ???????c ????? l?? Ti???n s?? Andrew Grant, ?????ng nghi???p c???a Sir John Herschel, m???t nh?? thi??n v??n h???c n???i ti???ng th???i ????. Herschel qu??? th???c ???? t???i Capetown, Nam Phi, v??o th??ng 01/1834, ????? x??y d???ng m???t ????i quan s??t v???i m???t k??nh vi???n v???ng m???i, c?? ch???t l?????ng t???t h??n. Grant m?? t??? r???ng Herschel ???? t??m th???y b???ng ch???ng v??? c??c d???ng v???t th??? s???ng tr??n M???t Tr??ng, bao g???m c??? nh???ng ?????ng v???t k??? ???o nh?? k??? l??n, h???i ly c?? hai ch??n v?? l??ng, ng?????i c?? c??nh gi???ng nh?? d??i. C??c b??i b??o c??ng c?? nh???ng ??o???n s???ng ?????ng vi???t v??? ?????a h??nh M???t Tr??ng, v???i c??c mi???ng h??? l???n, c??c tinh th??? th???ch anh t??m kh???ng l???, nh???ng d??ng s??ng ??o ???t v?? th???m th???c v???t t????i t???t.

T??? New York Sun, th??nh l???p v??o n??m 1833, l?? m???t trong nh???ng t??? b??o l?? c???i m???i thu h??t kh??n gi??? ?????i ch??ng v???i m???c gi?? r??? v?? v??n phong theo ki???u k??? chuy???n. K??? t??? ng??y b??i b??o Tr?? l???a M???t Tr??ng ?????u ti??n ???????c ph??t h??nh, doanh s??? c???a t??a so???n l???p t???c t??ng v???t ????ng k???. B???i c??u chuy???n nghe th???t th?? v??? v?? ?????c gi??? l???i c??ng th???i ph???ng l??n. V???n ????? duy nh???t l?? kh??ng c?? th??? g?? trong ???? l?? s??? th???t.

T???p ch?? Khoa h???c Edinburgh ???? ng???ng xu???t b???n t??? nhi???u n??m tr?????c ???? v?? Grant ch??? l?? m???t nh??n v???t h?? c???u. Lo???t b??i n??y r???t c?? th??? ???? ???????c vi???t b???i Richard Adams Locke, m???t ph??ng vi??n c???a Sun, xu???t th??n t??? ?????i h???c Cambridge. V???i m???c ????ch ch??m bi???m, c??c b??i vi???t ban ?????u ???????c thi???t k??? ????? g??y c?????i, nh??ng sau ???? c??ng ch??n th??m nh???ng suy ??o??n nghi??m t??c v??? cu???c s???ng ngo??i Tr??i ?????t, ?????c bi???t l?? c???a Reverend Thomas Dick, m???t c??y b??t khoa h???c n???i ti???ng ???? tuy??n b??? trong nh???ng cu???n s??ch b??n ch???y nh???t c???a m??nh r???ng ch??? ri??ng M???t Tr??ng ???? c?? 4,2 t??? c?? d??n.

Tuy nhi??n, ?????c gi??? ???? ho??n to??n b??? cu???n v??o c??u chuy???n m?? ch???ng th??? nh???n ra n?? ch??? l?? chuy???n ????a. C??n s???t v??? kh??m ph?? ???????c cho l?? c???a Herschel th???m ch?? ???? ????nh l???a m???t ???y ban c??c nh?? khoa h???c c???a ?????i h???c Yale, nh???ng ng?????i ???? t???i New York ????? t??m ki???m c??c b??i b??o c???a T???p ch?? Edinburgh. Sau khi c??c nh??n vi??n c???a Sun c??? t??nh g???i ch??ng qua l???i gi???a ph??ng in ???n v?? bi??n t???p, v???i hy v???ng l??m h??? n???n l??ng, c??c nh?? khoa h???c ???? quay tr??? l???i New Haven m?? kh??ng nh???n ra r???ng m??nh ???? b??? l???a.

Ng??y 16/09/1835, Sun th???a nh???n lo???t b??i n??y ch??? l?? m???t tr?? b???p b???m. Nh??n chung th?? ?????c gi??? ch??? th???y th??ch th??, v?? doanh s??? b??o ???? kh??ng g???p kh?? kh??n g??. New York Sun ???? ti???p t???c ho???t ?????ng cho ?????n n??m 1950, khi s??p nh???p v???i New York World-Telegram. Vi???c s??p nh???p k??o d??i cho ?????n n??m 1967. M???t t??? New York Sun m???i ???? ???????c th??nh l???p v??o n??m 2002, nh??ng n?? kh??ng li??n quan ?????n t??a so???n ban ?????u.

#260 ??? Kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? trong k??? nguy??n to??n c???u h??a

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Ngu???n: Ngaire Woods, ???International Political Economy in an Age of Globalization???, in John Baylis & Steve Smith (ed), The Globalisation of World Politics, Third edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), Chapter 14, pp. 325?? ??? 348.

Bi??n d???ch: Khoa QHQT | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Gi???i thi???u

Kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? n??i v??? s??? t??c ?????ng l???n nhau gi???a kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? trong c??c v???n ????? c???a th??? gi???i. C??u h???i c???t l??i c???a kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? l??: ??i???u g?? chi ph???i v?? gi???i th??ch c??c s??? ki???n trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i? ?????i v???i m???t s??? ng?????i, ??i???u ???? ch??nh l?? cu???c chi???n gi???a ???nh?? n?????c v???i th??? tr?????ng???. Tuy nhi??n, ??i???u n??y l?? sai l???m. C??c th??? tr?????ng c???a n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i kh??ng gi???ng nh?? ch??? tr???i tr??n ???????ng ph??? ?????a ph????ng, n??i t???t c??? m???i th??? ?????u c?? th??? ???????c trao ?????i mua b??n m???t c??ch c??ng khai  v?? c???nh tranh. T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, c??c ch??nh tr??? gia kh??ng th??? cai tr??? n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u nhi???u nh?? h??? mong mu???n. C??c th??? tr?????ng th??? gi???i, v?? c??c qu???c gia, c??c c??ng ty ?????a ph????ng, v?? c??c c??ng ty ??a qu???c gia bu??n b??n v?? ?????u t?? tr??n c??c th??? tr?????ng ???? ?????u ???????c quy ?????nh b???i c??c t???ng n???c quy ?????nh, chu???n t???c, ph??p lu???t, c??c t??? ch???c v?? th???m ch?? l?? c??c th??i quen kh??c nhau. C??c nh?? khoa h???c ch??nh tr??? g???i c??c ?????c ??i???m c???a h??? th???ng n??y l?? c??c ???th??? ch??????. Kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? c??? g???ng gi???i th??ch nh???ng g?? t???o ra v?? duy tr?? s??? t???n t???i c???a c??c th??? ch???, c??ng nh?? nh???ng t??c ?????ng c???a c??c th??? ch??? l??n n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i.

Kinh t??? th??? gi???i h???u Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai

Nh???ng th??? ch??? v?? khu??n kh??? c???a n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i c?? ngu???n g???c t??? vi???c ho???ch ?????nh m???t tr???t t??? kinh t??? th??? gi???i m???i di???n ra trong giai ??o???n cu???i c???a Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai. N??m 1944, nh???ng nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch ???? t???p trung t???i Bretton Woods (M???) ????? xem x??t c??ch gi???i quy???t 2 v???n ????? ngi??m tr???ng. ?????u ti??n, h??? c???n ?????m b???o r???ng cu???c ?????i Suy tho??i nh???ng n??m 1930 s??? kh??ng di???n ra l???n n???a. N??i c??ch kh??c, h??? ph???i t??m ra c??ch ????? b???o ?????m m???t h??? th???ng ti???n t??? to??n c???u ???n ?????nh v?? m???t h??? th???ng th????ng m???i th??? gi???i m???. Th??? hai, h??? ph???i x??y d???ng l???i n???n kinh t??? b??? t??n ph?? sau chi???n tranh ??? Ch??u ??u.

T???i Bretton Woods, 3 th??? ch??? ???? ???????c ho???ch ?????nh nh???m ph??t tri???n m???t tr???t t??? kinh t??? th??? gi???i m???i. Qu??? Ti???n t??? Qu???c t??? (IMF) ???????c t???o ra ????? b???o ?????m m???t ch??? ????? t??? gi?? h???i ??o??i ???n ?????nh, v?? cung c???p c??c h??? tr??? kh???n c???p cho c??c n?????c ??ang ?????i m???t v???i kh???ng ho???ng c??n c??n thanh to??n. Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i v??? T??i thi???t v?? Ph??t tri???n (IBRD, v??? sau ?????i t??n th??nh Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i ??? WB) ???????c t???o ra nh???m t???o thu???n l???i cho ?????u t?? c?? nh??n v?? t??i thi???t Ch??u ??u. Ng??n h??ng n??y c??ng c?? nhi???m v??? gi??p ????? c??c n?????c kh??c ph??t tri???n, nhi???m v??? n??y v??? sau tr??? th??nh nguy??n nh??n ch??nh cho s??? t???n t???i c???a n??. Cu???i c??ng, Hi???p ?????nh chung v??? Thu??? quan v?? M???u d???ch (GATT) ???????c k?? n??m 1947, v?? tr??? th??nh di???n ????n cho vi???c ????m ph??n v??? t??? do h??a th????ng m???i.

Ho???ch ?????nh n???n kinh t??? h???u chi???n tranh v?? tr??nh m???t cu???c ?????i Suy tho??i kh??c
Cu???c ?????i Suy tho??i ???? tr??? n??n tr???m tr???ng h??n, n???u kh??ng mu???n n??i l?? ???????c g??y n??n b???i c??c ch??nh s??ch ???t???t m??nh h???i ng?????i???. Cu???i th???p ni??n 1920 v?? 1930, c??c ch??nh ph??? tr??n kh???p th??? gi???i ???? c??? g???ng t??? v??? tr?????c cu???c kh???ng ho???ng kinh t??? b???ng c??ch n??ng cao nh???ng r??o c???n th????ng m???i v?? ph?? gi?? ti???n t???. M???i n?????c ?????u tin r???ng c??c bi???n ph??p n??y s??? gi??p gi??? cho n???n kinh t??? c???a h??? n???i l??n trong khi nh???ng n?????c l??ng gi???ng ch??m xu???ng. Cu???c ?????i Suy tho??i ???? ch???ng minh r???ng nh???ng bi???n ph??p n??y kh??ng c?? hi???u qu???. V??o cu???i cu???c chi???n tranh, m???t th??ch th???c l?? l??m sao t???o ra m???t h??? th???ng ng??n ng???a nh???ng vi???c n??y, ?????c bi???t l?? ph???i b???o ?????m:


??     M???t h??? th???ng h???i ??o??i ???n ?????nh

??     M???t ngu???n t??i s???n hay ????n v??? thanh to??n d??? tr??? (nh?? b???n v??? v??ng)

??     D??ng ch???y t?? b???n c?? th??? ki???m so??t ???????c

??     Kh??? n??ng cung c???p c??c kho???n vay ng???n h???n cho nh???ng n?????c ??ang ?????i m???t v???i kh???ng ho???ng c??n c??n thanh to??n t???m th???i

??     C??c quy ?????nh nh???m m??? c???a th????ng m???i

Nh???ng d??? ?????nh cho n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i n??m 1944 nhanh ch??ng b??? tr?? ho??n khi v??o n??m 1945 M??? ????a vi???c ng??n ch???n Li??n X?? l??n ??u ti??n h??ng ?????u. Lo s??? s??? gia t??ng c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ??? Ch??u ??u hoang t??n sau chi???n tranh, M??? ???? ????ng m???t vai tr?? tr???c ti???p h??n so v???i d??? ?????nh trong vi???c t??i thi???t Ch??u ??u v?? qu???n l?? n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i. M??? ???? ????a ra k??? ho???ch Marshall n??m 1947 nh???m cung c???p vi???n tr??? ??? ???t cho Ch??u ??u v?? cho ph??p M??? ????a ra nh???ng ??i???u ki???n ??i k??m. B???n v??? v??ng ???????c d??? ?????nh ???? ???????c thay th??? b???ng b???n v??? ????-la do M??? tr???c ti???p qu???n l??, h??? tr??? gi?? tr??? ?????ng ????-la b???ng v??ng. Kh??ng c?? g?? ????ng ng???c nhi??n khi v??o th???i ??i???m IMF, WB v?? GATT b???t ?????u ho???t ?????ng trong nh???ng n??m 1950 th?? nh???ng t??? ch???c n??y tr??? th??nh nh???ng t??? ch???c c???a kh???i ph????ng T??y, ph??? thu???c n???ng n??? v??o M???.

S??? ???ng h??? c???a M??? d??nh cho h??? th???ng Bretton Woods b???t ?????u thay ?????i khi n???n kinh t??? M??? b?????c v??o suy y???u. Sau n??m 1965, M??? m??? r???ng d??nh l??u qu??n s??? ??? Vi???t Nam, ?????ng th???i b???t ?????u chi nhi???u h??n cho c??c ch????ng tr??nh gi??o d???c v?? ph??t tri???n ???? th??? ??? M??? m?? kh??ng h??? t??ng thu???. ??i???u n??y g??y n??n nh???ng t??c h???i kh???ng khi???p. Gi?? c??? c??c m???t h??ng M??? gia t??ng, kh??? n??ng c???nh tranh c???a h??ng h??a v?? d???ch v??? M??? trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i suy gi???m. T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, l??ng tin v??o ?????ng ????-la M??? gi???m xu???ng. C??c h??ng s???n xu???t v?? nhi???u n?????c quay m???t l???i v???i ?????ng ????-la v?? n??ng l???c c???a M??? trong vi???c d??ng v??ng h??? tr??? ?????ng n???i t??? c???a m??nh b??? nghi ng???. Trong khi ????, c??c n?????c kh??c ???? n??ng cao v??? th??? c???a m??nh trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i. C??c ?????ng minh Ch??u ??u c???a M??? ???????c h?????ng l???i t??? s??? h???p nh???t kinh t??? gia t??ng ??? Ch??u ??u. V??o kho???ng cu???i nh???ng n??m 1960, s??? ph??t tri???n c???a EEC ???? mang l???i m???t b??n ?????p gi??p nh???ng nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch Ch??u ??u c?? l???p tr?????ng ?????c l???p h??n so v???i M???, nh?? trong c??c v???n ????? li??n quan t???i di???n t???p qu??n s??? trong NATO v?? vi???c ???ng h??? b???n b??? v??ng. ??? Ch??u ??, th??nh c??ng vang d???i c???a vi???c t??ng tr?????ng d???a v??o xu???t kh???u ??? Nh???t v?? nh???ng n???n kinh t??? m???i c??ng nghi???p h??a nh?? H??n Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ???? t???o ra nh???ng th??ch th???c m???i ?????i v???i kh??? n??ng c???nh tranh c???a M??? c??ng nh?? vi???c thi???t l???p ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? cho c??c cu???c ????m ph??n th????ng m???i.

?????i m???t v???i nh???ng ??p l???c n??y, M??? ???? thay ?????i c??c quy ?????nh c???a h??? th???ng ti???n t??? qu???c t??? v??o n??m 1971. Ch??nh ph??? th??ng b??o r???ng kh??ng c??n quy ?????i ????-la th??nh v??ng v???i m???c 35 ???? la cho m???t ounce v??ng n???a, v?? ????nh thu??? b??? sung 10% ?????i v???i c??c s???n ph???m nh???p kh???u (nh???m c???i thi???n c??n c??n th????ng m???i b???ng c??ch h???n ch??? h??ng nh???p kh???u v???n ??ang tr??n ng???p v??o M???, v?? c??? g???ng ng??n t??nh tr???ng ch???y m??u ????-la t???i nh???ng ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i). Nh???ng h??nh ?????ng n??y ???? ph?? v??? h??? th???ng Bretton Woods. ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? thay ?????i duy nh???t c???a n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i nh???ng n??m 1970.

V??o nh???ng n??m 1970, giai ??o???n ph??t tri???n nhanh sau Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai ???? ?????t ng???t ch???m d???t, v???i t??nh tr???ng l???m ph??t cao. T???i t??? h??n n???a, cu???c kh???ng ho???ng d???u l???a n??m 1973 ???? l??m n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i g??nh ch???u ?????ng th???i l???m ph??t v?? suy tho??i. Trong h??? th???ng ti???n t???, vai tr?? c???a IMF s???p ????? khi h??? th???ng Bretton Woods s???p ????? n??m 1971 v?? nh???ng n?????c c??ng nghi???p l???n kh??ng th??? t??m ra c??ch ph???i h???p ch??nh s??ch v??? t??? gi?? h???i ??o??i trong khu??n kh??? IMF. Thay v??o ????, c??c ?????ng ti???n ch??nh ???????c th??? n???i v?? c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p l???n b???t ?????u th???o lu???n c??c v???n ????? ti???n t??? trong c??c nh??m nh?? G7 (g???m M???, Nh???t, ?????c, ??, Anh, Ph??p v?? Canada). Nh??m n??y h???p l???n ?????u ti??n v??o n??m 1975.

Trong h??? th???ng th????ng m???i, s??? h???p t??c ???? t??ng ?????u trong c??c cu???c ????m ph??n d?????i s??? b???o h??? c???a GATT. Tuy nhi??n, v??o nh???ng n??m 1970, nh???ng l???i ??ch c?? ???????c t??? vi???c gi???m h??ng r??o thu??? quan, ?????c bi???t gi???a nh??ng n?????c c??ng nghi???p, ???? b??? ?????o ng?????c b???i nh???ng ch??nh s??ch b???o h??? m???i. Khi c??c n?????c ph???i v???t l???n v???i l???m ph??t ??i k??m suy tho??i, nhi???u n?????c ???? ????a ra c??c h??ng r??o th????ng m???i m???i (c??n g???i l?? h??ng r??o phi thu???  quan) nh???m ng??n ch???n c??c h??ng nh???p kh???u c?? s???c c???nh tranh cao t??? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n. M???t v?? d??? ??i???n h??nh c???a ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? m???i l?? Hi???p ?????c v??? v???i s???i n??m 1974 nh???m ????a ra c??c h???n ch??? ?????i v???i c??c m???t h??ng v???i s???i v?? ph??? ki???n nh???p kh???u t??? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n, vi ph???m tr???ng tr???n nguy??n t???c kh??ng ph??n bi???t ?????i x??? c???a GATT.

Ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? m???i ??? c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p h??a ???? khi???n c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n gi???n d???. V??o n?????c n??m 1970, c??c n?????c n??y ???? ph???i h???p ti???n h??nh m???t chi???n d???ch ??? ?????i h???i ?????ng Li??n H???p Qu???c k??u g???i thi???t l???p m???t Tr???t t??? kinh t??? th??? gi???i m???i (NIEO). S??? ki??n quy???t c???a c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n trong vi???c thay ?????i c??c lu???t ch??i ???? ???????c h???u thu???n b???i th??nh c??ng c???a c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n thu???c kh???i OPEC trong vi???c t??ng gi?? d???u n??m 1973. Ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? c???a NIEO bao g???m l??nh v???c th????ng m???i, vi???n tr???, ?????u t??, h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh v?? ti???n t??? th??? gi???i, v?? c???i c??ch c??c th??? ch???. C??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n mu???n c?? nhi???u ti???ng n??i h??n trong c??c th??? ch??? kinh t??? qu???c t???, m???t h??? th???ng th????ng m???i c??ng b???ng h??n, nhi???u vi???n tr??? h??n, quy???n ki???m so??t ?????u t?? n?????c ngo??i, s??? b???o v??? ch??? quy???n kinh t??? v?? c??c c???i c??ch nh???m ?????m b???o m???t h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh v?? ti???n t??? c??ng b???ng v?? ???n ?????nh h??n.

H??? th???ng th????ng m???i h???u chi???n, GATT v?? WTO
Hi???p ?????nh chung v??? th????ng m???i v?? thu??? quan (GATT) l?? m???t hi???p ?????nh t???m th???i ???????c k?? k???t v??o n??m 1947 v???i mong ?????i r???ng n?? s??? ???????c thay th??? b???i m???t t??? ch???c th????ng m???i qu???c t???. M???t t??? ch???c th????ng m???i th?????ng tr???c ???? kh??ng ???????c th??nh l???p cho ?????n n??m 1994, v??  trong su???t 4 th???p k???, GATT ???? t???n t???i v???i vai tr?? l?? m???t d??n x???p gi???a c??c B??n k?? k???t, v???i m???t ban th?? k?? r???t nh??? ??? Geneva c??ng m???t ng??n s??ch r???t h???n ch???. V??? b???n ch???t GATT l?? m???t di???n ????n ph???c v??? ????m ph??n th????ng m???i, v???i nhi???u v??ng ????m ph??n v?? ?????t ?????nh cao th??nh c??ng trong V??ng ????m ph??n Kenedy n??m 1962-7, khi ?????t ???????c c??c b?????c ?????t ph?? trong vi???c gi???m c??c r??o c???n th????ng m???i gi???a c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p v???i nhau. Tuy nhi??n, khi ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? m???i gia t??ng v??o th???p ni??n 1970, GATT ???? t??? ra b???t l???c trong vi???c ng??n c???n c??c th??nh vi??n m???nh nh?? M???, Ch??u ??u h???n ch??? th????ng m???i (v?? d???: Hi???p ?????c v???i s???i n??m 1974 h???n ch??? nh???p kh???u s???n ph???m d???t may) v?? l???m d???ng c??c ??i???u kho???n ngo???i l??? v?? t??? v??? ???????c quy ?????nh trong Hi???p ?????nh. GATT c??ng c?? nhi???m v??? gi???ng nh?? m???t di???n ????n gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p. Tuy nhi??n, GATT v???a ch???m ch???p v???a k??m n??ng l???c trong l??nh v???c n??y, do quy ?????nh ph???i ?????t ???????c ?????ng thu???n trong b???t k??? tranh ch???p n??o. GATT ???????c thay th??? b???i WTO theo sau c??c th???a thu???n ?????t ???????c t???i v??ng ????m ph??n cu???i c??ng c???a GATT, V??ng ????m ph??n Uruguay (1986-94). WTO ???????c th??nh l???p v??o ng??y 1 th??ng 1 n??m 1995, vai tr?? c???a n?? bao g???m: qu???n l?? c??c hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i WTO, ????ng vai tr?? nh?? m???t di???n ????n cho ????m ph??n th????ng m???i, gi???i quy???t c??c tranh ch???p th????ng m???i, ki???m tra c??c ch??nh s??ch th????ng m???i qu???c gia, cung c???p h??? tr??? v?? ????o t???o k??? thu???t cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n, v?? h???p t??c v???i c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t??? kh??c. Tr??? s??? ch??nh c???a WTO ???????c ?????t t???i Geneva v???i m???t Ban th?? k?? g???m 500 ng?????i (xem www.wto.org).

Chi???n d???ch NIEO ???? kh??ng th??nh c??ng b???i m???t v??i nguy??n nh??n. ?????i h???i ?????ng Li??n H???p Qu???c r?? r??ng l?? m???t th??? ch??? ph?? h???p gi??p c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n n??u v???n ????? v?? kh??ng gi???ng nh?? ??? IMF hay WB, t???i ?????i h???i ?????ng Li??n H???p Qu???c m???i n?????c c?? m???t l?? phi???u. Tuy nhi??n, ?????i h???i ?????ng Li??n H???p Qu???c kh??ng c?? quy???n l???c trong vi???c thi h??nh ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? m?? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n ????? ra. Th??m v??o ????, m???c d?? nhi???u n?????c c??ng nghi???p h??a ?????ng c???m v???i v???n ????? m?? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n n??u trong nh???ng n??m 1970, c??c ch??nh ph??? n??y ???? kh??ng c?? h??nh ?????ng n??o nh???m th???c hi???n ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? n??y trong nh???ng n??m 1970, v?? t???i nh???ng n??m 1980, m???t lo???t ch??nh ph??? m???i v???i h??? t?? t?????ng b???o th??? h??n ???? l??n n???m quy???n ??? M???, Anh v?? T??y ?????c.

Th???p k??? 1980 m??? ?????u b???ng m???t thay ?????i trong ch??nh s??ch kinh t??? c???a M???. N??m 1979, C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang M??? ???? t??ng m???nh l??i su???t. H??nh ?????ng n??y l?? nh???m ki???m ch??? l???m ph??t b???ng c??ch thu h???p c??c ho???t ?????ng kinh t??? ??? M???. Tuy nhi??n, ph???n c??n l???i c???a n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i ???? ph???n ???ng l???i ch??nh s??ch n??y m???t t???c th?? v?? r???ng kh???p. Trong su???t nh???ng n??m 1960 v?? 1970 c??c ch??nh s??ch c???a M??? v?? Ch??u ??u ???? t???o ??i???u ki???n cho vi???c ph??t tri???n nhanh ch??ng c???a th??? tr?????ng v???n to??n c???u c??ng nh?? d??ng ch???y t??i ch??nh. Trong nh???ng n??m 1970, nh???ng d??ng ch???y c??ng m???nh m??? h??n nh??? c??c kho???n ?????u t?? c???a c??c nh?? s???n xu???t d???u m???, nh???ng ng?????i c???n t??m ch??? ?????u t?? cho kho???n l???i nhu???n kh???ng l??? thu ???????c t??? vi???c gi?? d???u t??ng n??m 1973. S??? ti???n n??y ???????c chuy???n cho c??c ch??nh ph??? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n vay v???i chi ph?? th???p. Vi???c t??ng l??i su???t n??m 1979 l?? m???t ch???n ?????ng b???t ng??? ?????i v???i c??? ng?????i ??i vay l???n ng?????i cho vay (??a ph???n l?? c??c ng??n h??ng M???), nh???ng ng?????i b???ng nhi??n nh???n ra r???ng h??? kh??ng th??? thu h???i ???????c nhi???u kho???n cho vay. IMF ngay l???p t???c ???????c huy ?????ng nh???m gi??p c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n tr??nh tuy??n b??? m???t kh??? n??ng thanh to??n c??c kho???n vay n??y v?? ng?????i ta lo s??? r???ng vi???c h??? tuy??n b??? m???t kh??? n??ng tr??? n??? s??? d???n t???i m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh to??n c???u.

Kh???ng ho???ng n??? ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c vai tr?? c???a IMF trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i ch??? y???u l?? nh???m ?????m b???o r???ng c??c n?????c m???c n??? th???c hi???n ?????i???u ch???nh c?? c???u??? n???n kinh t??? c???a m??nh. ??i???u ch???nh c?? c???u c?? ngh??a l?? c??c bi???n ph??p t???c th?? nh???m gi???m l???m ph??t, chi ti??u ch??nh ph??? c??ng nh?? gi???m vai tr?? c???a ch??nh ph??? trong n???n kinh t???, bao g???m t??? do h??a th????ng m???i, t?? nh??n h??a v?? phi ??i???u ti???t h??a. Nh???ng ch??nh s??ch t??? do m???i n??y t????ng ph???n ho??n to??n v???i c??c ph??n t??ch c???a nh?? kinh t??? h???c Keynes v???n chi???m ??u th??? su???t giai ??o???n ph??t tri???n nhanh c???a n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i cho ?????n nh???ng n??m 1980. C??c nh?? kinh t??? theo t?? t?????ng Keynes tin r???ng ch??nh ph??? n??n ????ng m???t vai tr?? ch??? ?????ng c?? t??nh ch???t can thi???p trong n???n kinh t???, nh???m b???o ?????m c??? s??? ph??t tri???n v?? c??ng b???ng. Ng?????c l???i, ch??? ngh??a t??? do m???i t??m c??ch gi???m thi???u vai tr?? c???a nh?? n?????c v?? ch??nh ph???, ????? vi???c s???p ?????t c??c ngu???n l???c, s???n xu???t, ph??n ph???i trong n???n kinh t??? cho th??? tr?????ng t??? quy???t ?????nh. V??o kho???ng cu???i nh???ng n??m 1980, thu???t ng??? ????????ng thu???n Washington??? ???????c s??? d???ng, ch??? y???u ????? ??m ch??? r???ng nh???ng ch??nh s??ch n??y ch??? y???u ph???n ??nh l???i ??ch c???a n?????c M???.

Cho t???i khi Chi???n tranh l???nh k???t th??c, c??c th??? ch??? ???????c t???o ra n??m 1944 v???n c??n t???n t???i nh??ng vai tr?? c???a ch??ng trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i ???? r???t kh??c so v???i nh???ng g?? ???? ???????c d??? ?????nh t???i Bretton Woods. Ng??n hang Th??? gi???i tr??? th??nh m???t t??? ch???c ph???c v??? ph??t tri???n chuy??n cung c???p c??c kho???n cho vay t???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n. GATT th???t b???i trong vi???c ng??n ch???n ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? m???i nh???ng n??m 1970 v?? ????p ???ng nguy???n v???ng c???a c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n, nh??ng c??c cu???c ????m ph??n th????ng m???i trong th???p ni??n 1980 ???? gi??p t???o ra T??? ch???c th????ng m???i th??? gi???i (WTO), gi??p thi h??nh t???t h??n c??c quy ?????nh v??? th????ng m???i. IMF ????nh m???t vai tr?? c???a n?? trong h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh v?? ti???n t??? Bretton Woods nh??ng ???? c?? m???t vai tr?? m???i v???i cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? c???a th???p ni??n 1980. Trong khi ????, c??c th??ch th???c v??? m???t ch??nh s??ch li??n quan ?????n c??c thay ?????i n??y, c??ng v???i to??n c???u h??a v?? s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau ng??y c??ng gia t??ng, c?? ngh??a l?? IPE ng??y c??ng ????ng vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong vi???c nghi??n c???u quan h??? qu???c t???.

S??? n???i l??n c???a kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? trong nghi??n c???u quan h??? qu???c t???

Cho t???i nh???ng n??m 1970, kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? v???n l?? m???t m??n h???c kh??ng ???????c ch?? ?? nhi???u. M???c d?? cu???c tranh lu???n v??? nguy??n nh??n c???a s??? k??m ph??t tri???n v?? kh??ng b??nh ?????ng di???n ra s??i n???i gi???a c??c h???c gi??? theo ch??? ngh??a M??c truy???n th???ng, ??i???u n??y hi???m khi tr??? th??nh m???t m???i quan t??m c???t l??i c???a d??ng nghi??n c???u quan h??? qu???c t??? ch??nh th???ng. Thay v??o ????, nh???ng th??ch th???c v??? ch??nh tr??? v?? chi???n l?????c th???i k??? Chi???n tranh l???nh tr??? th??nh m???i b???n t??m ch??nh c???a c??c qu???c gia c??ng nghi???p h??a l???n c??c qu???c gia ??ang ph??t tri???n, ?????c bi???t l?? l??c n??y c??c qu???c gia ??ang ph??t tri???n ??ang ?????i m???t v???i v???n ????? phi th???c d??n h??a v?? x??y d???ng c???u tr??c nh?? n?????c th???i k??? h???u th???c d??n.

?????u th???p ni??n 1970, quan h??? qu???c t??? b???t ?????u thay ?????i khi c??c s??? ki???n ???????c n??u tr??n b???t bu???c c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch c??ng nh?? c??c h???c gi??? ph???i quan t??m h??n t???i c??c v???n ????? kinh t???. S???c m???nh v?? ??u th??? c???a n?????c M??? l?? r?? r??ng trong kh???i li??n minh ph????ng T??y t??? sau khi k???t th??c Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai cho t???i khi cu???c chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam v?? c??c kh?? kh??n kinh t??? b???t ?????u l??m x??i m??n quy???n b?? ch??? c???a M??? v??o cu???i nh???ng n??m 1960. B???ng nhi??n c??c m???i quan h??? kinh t??? d?????ng nh?? tr??? th??nh nh???ng tr??? ng???i v?? h???n ch??? ?????i v???i ch??nh s??ch ?????i n???i l???n ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a c??c qu???c gia.

Trong l??nh v???c nghi??n c???u quan h??? qu???c t???, nh???ng th??ch th???c ???????c ?????t ra b???i m???c ????? ph??? thu???c kinh t??? l???n nhau gi???a c??c qu???c gia ng??y c??ng gia t??ng, ?????c bi???t l?? ?????i v???i M???, ???? ???????c ph??n t??ch trong m???t cu???n s??ch chuy??n ????? n??m 1968 c???a  Richard Cooper. ??ng vi???t v??? s??? c???n thi???t ph???i ph???i h???p v?? c???ng t??c nhi???u h??n n???a gi???a c??c qu???c gia trong m???t th??? gi???i m?? ??? ???? c??n c??n thanh to??n c???a c??c qu???c gia b??? t??c ?????ng b???i ng??y c??ng nhi???u h??n nh???ng c?? s???c v?? v???n ????? kh??c nhau. C??ng tr??nh n??y sau ???? ???????c ph??t tri???n h??n n???a b???i c??c ?????ng nghi???p t???i ?????i h???c Harvard c???a gi??o s?? Cooper l?? Robert Keohane v?? Joseph Nye, v?? nghi??n c???u th??? hai c???a Keohane v?? Nye v??? s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau v??? kinh t??? c??ng c??c t??c ?????ng ??i k??m ???? tr??? th??nh m???t t??c ph???m ch??? ch???t c???a b??? m??n quan h??? qu???c t???. T???t c??? c??c c??ng tr??nh nghi??n c???u n??y ???? cho r???ng m???t k??? nguy??n m???i c???a quan h??? qu???c t??? ???? l?? d???ng. ?????c bi???t, h??? cho r???ng quan h??? qu???c t??? kh??ng n??n ti???p t???c ???????c coi l?? m???t cu???c c???nh tranh ?????a chi???n l?????c gi???a c??c n?????c. C??c v???n ????? kinh t???, c??c k??nh li??n l???c m???i, v?? c??c m?? h??nh h???p t??c m???i ??? t???t c??? ?????u gi??p h??nh th??nh m???t n???n ch??nh tr??? m???i c???a th??? gi???i m?? trong ???? c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t??? s??? ????ng m???t vai tr?? ch??? ?????o. ??i???u n??y mi??u t??? ch??nh x??c th???i k??? ngo???i giao h??a ho??n m???i b???t ?????u t??? h???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh gi???a hai si??u c?????ng n??m 1972.

M???t h??nh th???c ngo???i giao th?????ng ?????nh kh??c c??ng di???n ra trong nh???ng n??m 1970 gi???a ph????ng B???c (c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n) v?? ph????ng Nam (c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n). Nh???ng cu???c ????m ph??n n??y b???t ngu???n t??? nh???ng t?? t?????ng v?? nghi??n c???u kh??c v??? kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t???. N??? l???c c???a c??c qu???c gia ??ang ph??t tri???n nh???m th??c ?????y c???i c??ch h??? th???ng kinh t??? qu???c t??? ???????c ph???n ??nh trong thuy???t ph??? thu???c v?? thuy???t c???u tr??c v??? c??c m???i quan h??? kinh t??? qu???c t???, v???n l?? nh???ng h???c thuy???t n??u b???t c??c kh??a c???nh ti??u c???c c???a s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau. ?????c bi???t, c??c nh?? l?? lu???n n??y quan t??m ?????n vi???c x??c ?????nh nh???ng kh??a c???nh c???a n???n kinh t??? qu???c t??? v?? c??c th??? ch??? l??m c???n tr??? kh??? n??ng ph??t tri???n c???a c??c n?????c ph????ng Nam. M???i quan t??m ch??nh c???a h??? l?? tr??? l???i c??u h???i t???i sao c??n qu?? nhi???u qu???c gia trong n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i v???n c??n k??m ph??t tri???n, b???t ch???p nh???ng h???a h???n v??? t??ng tr?????ng to??n c???u v?? hi???n ?????i h??a. C??u tr??? l???i mang t??nh ?????ng c???m l???n nh???t c???a ???ph????ng B???c??? ?????i v???i nh???ng m???i quan t??m n??y ???????c th??? hi???n trong B??o c??o Brandt (1980), bao g???m nh???ng ph??t hi???n c???a m???t nh??m c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch c???p cao ???????c y??u c???u ki???m tra c??ch th???c v?? nguy??n nh??n t???i sao c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? n??n ph???n ???ng tr?????c c??c th??ch th???c c???a s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau v?? v???n ????? ph??t tri???n.

Hi???m h???a t??? vi???c ??n binh b???t ?????ng ??? Syria

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Ngu???n: ???The peril of inaction???The Economist, 20/02/2016.

Bi??n d???ch: V?? H???ng Trang & Nguy???n H???ng ??nh

Trong m???t cu???c chi???n tranh kh???c li???t nh?? ??? Syria, m???t s??? b??i h???c ??au th????ng tr??? n??n r?? r??ng h??n c???: cu???c chi???n c??ng k??o d??i, c??ng tr??? n??n ?????m m??u, c??ng nhi???u qu???c gia b??? k??o v??o v??ng xo??y v??, nh???ng ph????ng ??n l???a ch???n ????? ch???m d???t, ho???c ??t nh???t l?? k??m h??m cu???c chi???n c??ng tr??? n??n nan gi???i h??n. Nh??ng c?? l??? b??i h???c l???n nh???t l?? s??? v???ng m???t c???a M??? ???? t???o ra m???t kho???ng tr???ng b??? c??c l???c l?????ng nguy hi???m l???p ?????y: chi???n binh th??nh chi???n, c??c l???c l?????ng d??n qu??n Shia v?? gi??? l?? m???t n?????c Nga ??ang ng??y c??ng li???u l??nh h??n.

Syria l?? n??i h???i t??? g???m ghi???c c???a nhi???u cu???c chi???n trong m???t cu???c chi???n: m???t cu???c n???i d???y ch???ng l???i ch??? ????? ?????c t??i; m???t cu???c ?????ng ????? gi??o ph??i gi???a ng?????i Sunni v?? Alawite (v?? c??c ?????ng minh d??ng Shia); m???t cu???c t??n s??t n???i b??? gi???a nh???ng ng?????i Sunni ??? R???p; m???t cu???c ?????u tranh gi??nh ch???n n????ng th??n c???a ng?????i Kurd; m???t cu???c chi???n tranh ???y nhi???m c???a ??? R???p X??-??t v?? Th??? Nh?? K??? ch???ng l???i Iran; v?? m???t cu???c so t??i ?????a ch??nh tr??? gi???a m???t n?????c M??? e d?? v?? m???t n?????c Nga ??ang tr???i d???y.

Trong m??? h???n ?????n ?????m m??u n??y, Vladimir Putin ???? ch???n c??ch ?????ng v??? ph??a Bashar al-Assad v?? tr???c Shia. S???c m???nh kh??ng qu??n c???a t???ng th???ng Nga ???? l??m thay ?????i c???c di???n chi???n tr?????ng. L???c l?????ng ???ng h??? Assad ???? c???t ?????t m???t h??nh lang ti???p t??? huy???t m???ch t??? Th??? Nh?? K??? t???i c??c khu v???c t???i Aleppo do qu??n n???i lo???n n???m gi???. Assad ??ang chu???n b??? bao v??y n??i v???n d?? tr?????c ????y l?? th??nh ph??? l???n nh???t c???a Syria. Ng?????i t??? n???n m???t l???n n???a ??ang ????? d???n v??o bi??n gi???i Th??? Nh?? K???, nh??ng nhi???u ng?????i s??? ??? l???i Syria. Trong m???t lo???t di???n bi???n ngo???i giao g???m ng???ng b???n, c???u tr??? nh??n ?????o v?? d??n x???p ch??nh tr???, Nga hi???n ??ang l?? qu???c gia ????a ra lu???t ch??i, gi???ng nh?? ??i???u m?? M??? ???? l??m sau khi can thi???p v??o c??c cu???c chi???n tranh ??? Balkan th???p ni??n 1990. Ch??nh s??ch c???a T???ng th???ng Barack Obama t???i Syria ??? mong mu???n Assad ra ??i m?? kh??ng s???n l??ng d??ng m???i bi???n ph??p ????? l???t ????? v??? t???ng th???ng n??y ??? ???? th???t b???i th???m h???i. C?? v??? nh?? Assad s??? th???ng Obama. Nh??ng cu???c chi???n s??? kh??ng k???t th??c. Th???t v???y, n?? tr??? n??n m???i l??c m???t t???i t??? h??n.

Th??? Nh?? K??? ??ang ng??y m???t l??n s??u v??o cu???c chi???n. Qu???c gia n??y ???? n?? ph??o m???t c??ch c?? h??? th???ng v??o ng?????i Kurd ??? Syria. ??i???u n??y khi???n h??? g???n k???t v???i ng?????i Kurd Th??? Nh?? K???, nh???ng ng?????i ???? v???i v??ng ti???p t???c cu???c n???i d???y k??o d??i h??ng th???p k??? qua ??? Th??? Nh?? K???. Tuy nhi??n, ng?????i Kurd t??? tr?????c t???i gi??? v???n l?? nh???ng ?????ng minh th??n t??n nh???t c???a M??? ch???ng l???i Nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o (IS). G???n ????y, h??? ???? nghi??ng v??? ph??a Nga v?? ??ng Assad, gi??p c???t ?????t h??nh lang t???i Aleppo trong n??? l???c h???p nh???t hai ?????a ph???n c???a ng?????i Kurd d???c theo bi??n gi???i v???i Th??? Nh?? K???.

????? ???ng h??? Th??? Nh?? K???, ??? R???p X??-??t ???? tri???n khai m??y bay qu??n s???, c??ng b??? t???p tr???n t???i ch??nh qu?? nh?? v???i s??? tham gia c???a c??c qu???c gia ?????i t??c d??ng Sunni g???m Ai C???p, Ma-r???c v?? Pakistan. ???-r???p X??-??t ???? ????? ngh??? g???i l???c l?????ng ?????c nhi???m t???i Syria, s??t c??nh c??ng l???c l?????ng c???a M???, v???i l?? do n??u ra l?? ch???ng IS. C??c nh?? ngo???i giao hi???n b??n lu???n v??? s??? tr??? l???i c???a ???cu???c chi???n Charlie Wilson???, m???t chi???n d???ch do M???, ??? R???p X??-??t v?? Pakistan ph???i h???p ti???n h??nh nh???m trao t??n l???a Stinger cho c??c nh??m Afghanistan chi???n ?????u ch???ng l???c l?????ng Li??n X?? trong nh???ng n??m 1980. Li???u ???-r???p X??-??t c?? trao cho l???c l?????ng Sunni v?? kh?? ch???ng m??y bay ????? l??m gi???m s???c m???nh kh??ng qu??n c???a Nga?

????ng b??o ?????ng nh???t l?? nguy c?? chi???n tranh gi???a Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? Nga. Th??ng 11, Th??? Nh?? K??? b???n h??? m???t m??y bay ph???n l???c c???a Nga; Nga c???n tr??? ????a v?? m???t c?? h???i nh???m chia r??? t???ng th???ng Th??? Nh?? K??? Recep Tayyip Erdogan n??ng n???y v???i c??c ?????ng minh NATO. Nga ???? ti???n h??nh m???t ?????t ???t???p tr???n ?????t xu???t??? ??? mi???n nam n?????c n??y.

V?? v???y, Syria ?????t ra nh???ng m???i nguy hi???m ng??y c??ng gia t??ng ?????i v???i ph????ng T??y: T??n l???a ch???ng m??y bay s??? t??ng v???t, cho ph??p chi???n binh th??nh chi???n s??? d???ng ch???ng l???i c??c m??y bay c???a ph????ng T??y; c??c qu???c gia nh?? Li-b??ng v?? Jordan s??? s???p ?????; d??ng ng?????i t??? n???n s??? g??y m???t ???n ?????nh cho Li??n minh ch??u ??u; NATO c?? th??? l???i r??i v??o m???t cu???c chi???n v???i Nga; Putin s??? c??ng ???????c kh??ch l??? ????? th??ch th???c ph????ng T??y ??? c??c khu v???c kh??c; v?? ??ng s??? truy???n c???m h???ng cho nh???ng k??? ?????c t??i ??? kh???p m???i n??i.

Kh???ng ch??? b???t ???n

Ph????ng T??y n??n th??c gi???c Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? ???-R???p X??-??t ki???m ch???: r???i ro t??? chi???n tranh v???i Nga v?? t??? c??c cu???c t???n c??ng c???a chi???n binh th??nh chi???n l?? qu?? cao. M??? n??n c??? g???ng thuy???t ph???c ng?????i Th??? v?? ng?????i Kurd h??a thu???n thay v?? ?????i ?????u. D?? v???y, ????? nh???ng mong mu???n ???? c?? s???c ???nh h?????ng, M??? c???n ph???i n??? l???c h??n n???a ??? Syria. N???u Assad v?? Nga th??nh c??ng trong vi???c bi???n chi???n tranh th??nh m???t s??? l???a ch???n gi???a ch??? ????? Assad ??????ng th???i v?? c??c chi???n binh th??nh chi???n t???i t??? nh???t, th?? ???? s??? l?? m???t th???m h???a. H???u h???t ng?????i Syria ?????u thu???c d??ng Sunni v?? nhi???u ng?????i trong s??? h??? s??? kh??ng bao gi??? h??a gi???i v???i Assad. N???u c??c nh??m chi???n binh ch??? ?????o b???i tr???n, h??? s??? ho???c b??? ?????y t???i ch??u ??u ho???c r??i v??o tay c??c chi???n binh th??nh chi???n. Do ???? nh???ng ng?????i d??n th?????ng Sunni c???n ???????c h??? tr???.

Bi k???ch t??? s??? y???u ??u???i c???a ??ng Obama l?? ??? ch??? nh???ng h??nh ?????ng v???n d?? t???ng kh??? thi ??? nh?? thi???t l???p m???t v??ng c???m bay ho???c t???o ra khu v???c an to??n ???  gi??? ????y l???i c?? nguy c?? g??y n??n ?????ng ????? v???i Nga. Nh???ng v??ng nh??n ?????o kh??ng ???????c tuy??n b??? c??ng khai v???n c??n kh??? n??ng ???????c hi???n th???c h??a. ???ng ph?? t???i ??u c???a Obama l?? ph???i nghi??m t??c xem x??t ch??nh s??ch c???a m??nh: t???o ra m???t l???c l?????ng ??n h??a ????? ?????y l??i Nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o ??? mi???n ????ng Syria. ??i???u n??y c???n c?? s??? gi??p s???c c???a c??c qu???c gia H???i gi??o Sunni; cung c???p cho qu??n n???i d???y ??n h??a m???t v??ng h???u ph????ng ????? t??? ???? thi???t l???p c??n c??? ?????a cho m???t ch??nh ph??? thay th??? d?????i s??? b???o tr??? c???a kh??ng qu??n M??? hi???n t???i; v?? khi???n tuy??n b??? c???a Nga v??? vi???c ch???ng l???i c??c chi???n binh th??nh chi???n tr??? th??nh tr?? n??i d???i.

Ph????ng T??y s??? ph???i g??y ??p l???c v???i Nga, b???t ?????u t??? vi???c gia h???n l???nh tr???ng ph???t c???a EU v??o m??a h?? n??y. Putin ???? s??? d???ng v?? l???c m???t c??ch kh??n ngoan. Ph???n ???ng c???a ph????ng T??y kh??ng nh???t thi???t ph???i b??? gi???i h???n ??? Syria.

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